Latin America Economics Update Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Provisional) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mexico’s GDP growth, to just 0.1% q/q in Q4, is likely to be followed by continued sluggish growth over the coming quarters. At the margin, the data increase the... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem... 26th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024) The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Latin American equities may remain laggards While we expect equities around the world to rebound – as a stock market bubble inflates on the back of growing hype around AI – we suspect that Latin American stock markets will keep lagging. 24th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update LatAm currencies and equities may fare poorly this year We think that most major currencies in Latin American will fall against the US dollar this year. As a result, the relatively poor returns that we expect from equities in the region in local-currency... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (December 2023) The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next meeting at the end of the... 11th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF endorses Milei’s plans but hurdles ahead The IMF’s approval of the next disbursement of Argentina’s current deal will provide the government with the necessary funds to make upcoming repayments (due to the Fund itself). And the fact that the... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning an easing cycle at its... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read