Global Markets Update Asian bonds underperformance will not last Asian bonds have been hit more than others by the recent widening in spreads on emerging market foreign currency debt, but we believe they will rally by the end of the year. 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices figures should provide some reassurance that, behind the special factors currently pushing inflation higher, underlying price pressures in the UK economy remain pretty... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment is more bad news. But it probably reflects the euro-zone’s fiscal problems more than specific concerns about Germany. We still see the economy leading... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging Europe: credit and the investment market outlook There are tentative signs that credit conditions are easing in some Emerging European economies. This may raise hopes that commercial property investment markets in the region could rebound this year... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek economic woes grow as markets’ fears ease The fact that last week’s European Commission “accord” on Greece appears to have placated the markets temporarily is clearly encouraging for Greece. But with the Greek recession intensifying in Q4 and... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in January wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy interest rates at the next monetary policy review in April. The chance of an... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weak global recovery to expose sharp country divisions (Q1 10) The recovery in Latin America’s resurgent economy is likely to stay strong for a quarter or two longer. But we expect growth to fade over the second half of this year and into 2011 as the global... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not tightening policy yet It has been suggested that central banks are already effectively tightening policy by withdrawing the emergency liquidity provided to the financial system during the depths of the crisis. But in the... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will Lenders Trip Over the Mortgage Funding Gap? The fact that lenders face a prospective funding gap equivalent to a quarter of the outstanding stock of mortgage debt only strengthens our view that a second leg to the housing market correction lies... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4, Preliminary) Japan recorded strong, broad-based growth in the final quarter of last year, laying a solid foundation for 2010. We continue to expect the strength of the recovery to surprise the markets for a few... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone Occupier Market Recovery Yet to Materialise (Feb 10) The euro-zone investment market recovery gained traction in the final quarter of 2009, as investor appetite for commercial property strengthened. However, there is still no evidence that a sustainable... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Still positive on stocks and bonds Recent market moves have supported our relatively positive views on the outlook both for Japanese equities and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC retains faith in spare capacity to reduce inflation Last week’s Inflation Report was always likely to show a downward revision to the MPC’s growth forecasts and it duly delivered. But less certain was whether the recent rise in inflation would have... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
