UK Economics Focus As many Eastern Europeans going as coming Recent migration figures suggest that immigration into the UK has slowed sharply, while the number of migrants leaving the UK has risen. We think that net migration flows are now back to, or even... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are Brazilian consumers starting to flag? 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia jumps the queue and should hike next week Today was Malaysia’s turn to report Q4 GDP growth far stronger than the consensus and even our more-bullish-than-most expectations. All the positives will probably stay in place in coming quarters and... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) & Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The annual growth of Japan’s exports predictably soared in January due to favourable base effects. More revealingly, exports continued their gradual recovery in month-onmonth terms. Today’s upbeat... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out now more likely than not The revelation that Greece used complex financial assets to improve the official figures on the public finances earlier this decade highlights the uncertainty surrounding the reliability of these... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack London office rents rise, but all-property average to fall further (Mar 10) The economy remains subdued, with the public finances in a poor state, retail sales declining sharply in January and unemployment rising again. All of this simply reinforces our view that GDP will... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Easing German labour costs to help exporters Recent trade union deals point to a slowdown in German wage growth, which will come as a welcome relief to hard-pressed exporters. This supports our view that a robust export recovery will see Germany... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the Russian recovery built to last? A combination of a massive fiscal stimulus and a boost from the inventory cycle should ensure that the Russian economy grows at annual rates in excess of 6% during the first half of this year. But the... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The second German GDP release confirmed that the recovery ground to a halt in Q4, with exports still rising, but domestic spending very weak. Sadly, the latest fall in consumer confidence suggests... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian debt is safer than Turkish debt Spreads on Russian and Turkish foreign currency bonds relative to US Treasuries have moved in lockstep since October 2009. (See Chart 1.) The prospect that commodity prices (and especially oil prices)... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
