UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Feb 10), Property Lending (Jan 10) & Mergers & Acquisitions (Q4 09) Today’s CIPS/Markit Construction PMI does nothing to change our view that commercial property rental values will fall further this year. Its subdued tone was also echoed by the latest mergers &... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) The Swiss economy is faring better than others in Europe, posting a 0.7% quarterly expansion in Q4. Such a strong pace is unlikely to be sustained, but we have revised up our forecast for GDP growth... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Consumer price inflation probably climbed to more than 2% last month and is likely to continue drifting higher. But a closer look shows few signs of major price pressures. 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Unemployment (Jan.) Household spending dropped back in January, but the labour data were better than expected. Unfortunately, there are good reasons to question the sustainability of the sharp falls in unemployment. 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update GDP detail reveals fragility of recoveries The recent recovery in GDP in the major economies has typically been flattered by the boost from the inventory cycle and, in some cases, a rebound in net exports. Stripping out these factors, “final... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A harder grind for world trade from now on Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade grew rapidly in December. Asia is driving the upturn and will continue to lead the way in 2010 and 2011. But the big improvement in world trade has... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s change not as bad as first appears Today’s headlines that Vietnam is moving toward price controls do not mark a shift away from the free market policy adjustments needed to successfully tackle its inflation and balance of payments... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Sluggish recovery to keep interest rates low 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the implications of the Chilean Earthquake 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) This week marks the one year anniversary of the launch of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) programme of asset purchases. As Mervyn King has pointed out, without QE, the UK would probably... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s increase in euro-zone unemployment shows that households’ real incomes remain under strain despite very low inflation. At least February’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index points to a... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand off to a good start in 2010 The momentum built-up by the Thailand economy at the end of 2009 has carried forward into January. Consumption will be strong for a while but it is investment that will lead GDP growth this year... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Feb.) February’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing brought evidence that the industrial side of the economy is continuing to recover. But there are still major uncertainties over the outlook for the... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
