UK Commercial Property Update Does the property derivatives market know something we don’t? Current commercial property derivatives prices suggest that IPD total returns this year will be markedly lower than either our expectations or the IPF Consensus forecasts. The derivatives market may... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed are Emerging Europe’s banks to Greece? In a recent Update we argued that the crisis in Greece has dealt a huge blow to the prospects for a further rapid expansion of the euro-zone (see Emerging Europe Update, ‘Greek tragedy to temper EMU... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire again but further action still likely The MPC remains in wait and see mode while it assesses the economic outlook and the impact of its previous policy measures. But with the recovery sluggish, inflation worries set to ease and a major... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q4 brings some hope that the slowdown in growth at the end of last year at least partly reflected temporary factors. But the recovery in the region remains fragile... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus QE a year on Without the Bank of Englands programme of quantitative easing (QE) launched a year ago, the economy would probably still be in recession. However, the policy has clearly not worked well enough to kick... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Government still central to the recovery (Mar 10) Chinese consumers played a major role in supporting economic growth over the past year. Even at the depths of the global crisis, consumer spending barely slowed. But this was not entirely because of... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for a mild monetary tightening Bank Negara (BNM) raised the overnight policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% at today’s meeting. This was contrary to the consensus expectation but in line with our forecast. Economic growth has recently... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian politics is back in the way Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6.5% today, as expected. The major new development is that politics is high profile again and threatens to stall the new reforms Indonesia needs to lift its trend... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) The decline in the Halifax house price index is further evidence that the housing market recovery took a backward step at the turn of the year. It is possible that temporary factors mean that recent... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Tough times still lie ahead for US equities (Feb 10) The US stock market recovered in February after a shaky start to the year. We would not be surprised if it edged up a little more in the near term. However, we do not think the rebound ushers in the... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors reveal a liquidity preference A closer look at the movement in French commercial property yields supports the idea that liquidity remains a key consideration for investors as office yields have fallen more sharply than retail or... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in investment remains on track The year-on-year slump in business spending in Q4 reported in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is largely old news. Neither the year-on-year nor the quarter-on-quarter data justify speculation... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Fiscal worries weigh on markets The combination of a sluggish recovery in the economy and concerns over the UK’s fiscal position and credit rating has weighed on UK asset markets over recent weeks. The rally in the equity market has... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
