Poland: surge in exports boosts Q4 GDP

Q4 Polish GDP data released this morning confirmed an earlier preliminary estimate that the economy grew by 1.7% in 2009 and by 3.1% y/y in the final quarter of last year. But while Poland should continue to outperform its peers in the region, the current combination of export and government-led growth looks unsustainable. We continue to expect the next couple of years to resemble a slow grind rather than a rapid take off.