UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s UK public finances figures suggested that this year’s budget deficit could exceed that of Greece and further underlined the need for more decisive action to improve the fiscal position when... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Increased supply will weigh on Italian office rental values Although office rental values in Italy have held up reasonably well over the past eighteen months, a slow recovery in the economy and a rise in development completions suggest that this will not last... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium the Greece of the North? Despite growing fairly solidly in the last two quarters, Belgium shares some worrying similarities with Greece and the other troubled Southern euro-zone economies. But its stronger trade position and... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil edges towards first rate hike All inflation targeting economies in the region rebounded strongly in the second half of 2009, and should continue to grow at a decent pace in the first half of this year. At the same time, a spike in... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the TIC data tell us (and what they do not) 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wage costs pose no lasting inflation threat While the recent rise in consumer price inflation has been driven by temporary factors such as the VAT hike and higher energy prices, one potentially more persistent influence is the rapid growth of... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response E-Z Trade Balance (Dec.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) December’s healthy rise in euro-zone exports suggests that exporters are continuing to cope with the strong euro. But the cost has been a sharp squeeze in firms’ margins. This casts doubts on whether... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account concerns start to build After shrinking markedly from the levels seen in mid-2008, Turkey’s current account deficit has begun to widen once again. While the deficit has not yet reached danger levels, the bigger picture is... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the pause in the Committee’s quantitative easing (QE) programme may be only temporary. If the recovery disappoints –... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: new MPC but interest rates going nowhere for now As expected, the replacement of Poland’s entire Monetary Policy Council (MPC) which was completed today is unlikely to mark a fundamental shift in the Council’s bias. As a result, we are sticking to... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A rally built on shaky fundamentals (Q1 10) We have revised up our near-term commercial property forecasts and expect average IPD capital values to rise by about 10% this year. That is consistent with a very strong total return of about 18%. 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Caution to dominate, for now The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting, which concludes on Thursday, is likely to be a non-event. There is still a compelling case for further monetary stimulus and today’s parliamentary testimonies... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
