Latin America Economics Update Jump in Mexican inflation reflects one-off factors 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update VAT’s the way they like it Further changes to VAT are an appealing option for improving the fiscal position. But by pushing inflation even higher and perhaps limiting the scope for offsetting monetary support, excessive... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How big a threat is New Zealand’s negative savings rate? New Zealand’s household savings rate has been negative since the early 1990s and has now widened to around 14% of disposable income. The gap between spending and income should narrow over the next few... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about minimum wage increases? Proposed increases to China’s minimum wages are relatively small and they tell us very little about the outlook for inflation. 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jan.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What could the new seasonals mean for GDP? The Cabinet Office has announced a change in the seasonal adjustments that might reduce the GDP growth figure reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 (data due next Monday). However, any impact is... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is it the stocks or flows of QE that matter? The MPC’s decision to pause its quantitative easing (QE) programme has intensified the debate about whether it is the stocks or flows of asset purchases that matter most for the economy. The answer is... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is France next in the markets’ sights? As worries about the public finances spread throughout the euro-zone, France is the latest to edge on to the radar screens. Given a relatively low stock of debt and healthy economic outlook, its... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Too soon to call a recovery in euro-zone office occupier demand Although some euro-zone office markets saw a rise in take-up at the end of 2009, we do not think that this spells the end of the occupier market downturn. The fragile state of the economic recovery... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The renewed weakness of bank lending is largely due to lower demand for credit rather than a lack of supply. This is not all bad news – emergency bank borrowing by firms in distress is probably... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Yanukovich triumphs but Ukrainian markets set for a rough ride Exit polls suggest that Viktor Yanukovich has defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the race to become Ukraine’s next President. But his margin of victory in yesterday’s run-off was slim and the... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
