Europe Economics Weekly Is the recovery over before it’s begun? Last week’s EU “accord” on Greece was long on vague pledges of support, but notably short on detail. For now, the markets have given the EU the benefit of the doubt. But if more meat is not put on the... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe still mired in recession The flurry of Q4 GDP data released this morning paint a pretty grim picture. Most countries, with the notable exception of Slovakia, appear to have contracted on a quarterly basis and there is little... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Greece’s problems are ours too Greece is the word in the financial markets at the moment. But aside from the potential for weak puns like that (“Greek tragedy”, “acropolis now” etc.), what do recent developments there mean for the... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Europe’s fiscal crisis: how big a threat for commercial property? Although German bund yields, our preferred measure of risk-free rates, have held fairly steady, commercial property investors cannot afford to ignore the sharp rise in Greek, Portuguese, and to a... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The news that the euro-zone recovery lost what little momentum it had in Q4 will add to markets’ fears about the region. GDP rose by just 0.1% on the quarter after Q3’s 0.4% gain. Q4’s outturn was... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Weak recovery pushes interest rates lower (Feb 10) Concerns about the fragility of the domestic recovery have recently outweighed those regarding the sustainability of the UK’s public finances and the Bank of England’s decision to pause its programme... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Emerging market equities should not underperform for long 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q4) It is still early days, but our prediction last month that April would be the high water mark for house price inflation appears to have been borne out. For now, house prices continue to rise, but... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korea hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. Political pressures to hold off monetary tightening have intensified and we now expect the first increase to be delayed until... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation fears set to return Today’s inflation and loan data, and the latest statement from the People’s Bank, may reassure markets that the pace of tightening in China will not be as fast as many had feared. This seems right to... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q4) 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right move Vietnam today devalued its currency by 3%. Only the timing of the move was a surprise. The devaluation is necessary and reduces the risk of a disorderly currency decline. Nevertheless, more... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
