Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates going nowhere regardless of new NBP Governor The proposed appointment of Marek Belka, a well-respected, pro-market economist, as the new Governor of the National Bank of Poland is not yet a done deal. But regardless of who takes over at the helm... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank levy squabbles don’t bode well for fiscal union A bank levy along the lines of that recently proposed by the European Commission seems unlikely to alter banks’ behaviour or the state of European public finances dramatically. But the difficulty in... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German CPI (1st Est. May) German headline and core inflation remain very low and look set to fall further. With disinflationary pressures even stronger in many of the smaller euro-zone economies, deflation remains a real... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines’ strong start to 2010 is likely to last Today it was the turn of the Philippines to publish impressive Q1 GDP data. Base effects played a part but q/q growth was rapid too. The economic recovery is on solid foundations and will stay strong... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are UK equities attractive relative to gilts? While the dividend yield of the FTSE 100 recently rose above the yield on 10-year UK gilts for the first time since last autumn (see Chart 1), we would be wary of reading too much into this particular... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China finally rebalancing? How much progress has there been in efforts to rebalance China’s economy? US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is positive, saying that “it looks as if there has been a durable shift towards domestic... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the resilience of French retail rents last? Although French retail rental values have barely fallen to date, we do not think that their resilience will last. With the economic recovery faltering, and figures released today showing that consumer... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Japan’s exports will continue to rebound for several quarters yet, despite the problems in Europe and the surge in the yen. A significant deterioration is unlikely until 2011, by when we expect the... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greece: From crisis to tragedy – and then salvation? The joint EU/IMF support packages may have provided Greece with some breathing space but it will not prevent years of economic hardship. Whatever its actions, the Government has no choice but to... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Big picture still dominated by fiscal challenges Despite the turmoil in financial markets, the near-term outlook for the world economy is brighter than a few months ago. Nonetheless, a seemingly impressive rebound in 2010 is likely to give way to... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Lower bond yields to help property yields fall further (Jun 10) The economy grew slightly faster in Q1 (0.3%) than originally thought (0.2%), but the bigger picture is that the outlook remains soft. Employment has started to fall again and a painful fiscal squeeze... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
