Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Another large rise in GDP in Q1 and some upward revisions keep Japan's economy on course to grow by at least 4.0% this year, which would be well above consensus. 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker euro-zone to stem Swiss recovery Switzerland’s low levels of public and private sector debt suggest that it will continue to out-grow the euro-zone over the next couple of years. But it will suffer from strong trade links with the... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could we be wrong about inflation? If we are wrong in expecting UK consumer price inflation to fall back over the next year or so, the consequences for the economy - higher interest rates alongside a huge fiscal squeeze - could be... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian industry surges but from a low base The surge in Russian industrial production growth in April is not quite as good as it appears at first sight since it is flattered by base effects stemming from the collapse in activity last year. In... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s housing market at a turning point? It is too soon to be sure whether the recent softness in some London housing market indicators are simply noise in an otherwise healthy trend or whether they are a sign that a turning point is at hand... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update W eaker euro-zone to stem Swiss recovery Switzerland’s low levels of public and private sector debt suggest that it will continue to out-grow the euro-zone over the next couple of years. But it will suffer from strong trade links with the... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May.) The minutes of May’s MPC confirmed that the Committee as a whole is still singing from the same Dovish hymn sheet as the Governor. Interest rates are unlikely to rise for a long time and further... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May.) The minutes of May’s MPC confirmed that the Committee as a whole is still singing from the same Dovish hymn sheet as the Governor. Interest rates are unlikely to rise for a long time and further... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How secure is the recovery in Western European capital values? Recent falls in property yields have lifted capital values in most markets, particularly in Norway and France. But this trend is unlikely to last. Indeed, we think that the yield recovery is likely to... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q1) The latest Spanish GDP figures confirm that the economy just about exited recession at the start of the year. But with the Government recently announcing new austerity measures and the private sector... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will Europe’s troubles affect China’s currency policy? Worries about Europe have prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the renminbi’s future pace of gains, but we still expect appreciation against the dollar to resume at some point between next... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: low debt levels mask mounting fiscal risks Russia’s public finances are a picture of health compared to those economies in the euro-zone’s periphery. But if oil prices drop further, as we expect, spending may have to be cut in real terms for... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
