Europe Economics Update What can we learn from Ireland? On the face of it, there are signs that Ireland may be about to exit recession. But any recovery will be down to its exceptionally strong trade links with non-euro-zone economies, rather than any... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Europe’s crisis will not derail Japan’s recovery The turmoil in the euro-zone has hit investor confidence in Japan much harder than we believe is justified by economic fundamentals. 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What is the outlook for S&P 500 earnings? We expect S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) to increase by nearly 15% this year. While encouraging, such an outcome would come as a disappointment to many investors. According to Bloomberg... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending cuts just the tip of the iceberg The planned efficiency savings detailed by the new Government today are just the tip of the iceberg. Much bigger cuts, alongside hefty tax increases, will be needed to bring the budget deficit down. 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan unlikely to cut rates in 2010 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50%. We forecast that rates will be kept on hold into 2011. The economic upswing should continue but inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand started 2010 well but what happens from here? Q1 GDP in Thailand, published today, beat expectations but the most significant announcement in recent days was one from the Finance Minister, who stated that the government was “highly unlikely” to... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Overheating concerns still misplaced The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has slowed to near China’s sustainable rate. Headline GDP growth will drop to a similar pace over the quarters ahead, without any... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How Japanese GDP can grow by 4.5% The attention of the markets is understandably elsewhere right now. Nonetheless, for the record, the first quarter GDP data kept Japan’s economy on course to grow by at least 4.0% in 2010. Our top of... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam outlook continues to improve The central bank in Vietnam will set interest rates for June over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate unchanged at 8.00%, rather than move rates up. The easing of credit conditions... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC right to be sanguine on inflation, for now Last week’s letter from Mervyn King to the new Chancellor George Osborne after inflation surprised on the upside again drew accusations that the Governor is being dangerously sanguine on the inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker euro unlikely to solve the region’s woes On the face of it, the recent weakening of the euro should provide the euro-zone’s external sector with a boost over the coming months. But given that exporters have tended previously to respond to a... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update “Delay and pray” continues; low interest rates crucial for outlook The latest De Montfort University (DMU) Lending Review makes uncomfortable reading for the commercial property market, showing that a full 20% of outstanding loans by value are now distressed. For now... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Liquidity is important, but it is not the be all and end all 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan straying into industrial policy The Bank of Japan’s proposed one-year loan scheme is designed to support the government’s longerterm industrial policy rather than to ease monetary conditions more generally. As such the immediate... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
