Asia Economics Update India will keep powering forward Q1 GDP data published today were strong. Private sector spending will probably ensure that the economy continues to expand at an 8-9% pace in coming quarters, even as stimulatory policies are... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Output, Wages, Housing (Apr) & PMI (May) Today's data were mixed, with weak industrial production and housing starts offset by better news from the manufacturing PMI and the labour market. However, all have been somewhat overshadowed by the... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation is India's biggest threat It will probably be India’s turn on Monday to report another spectacularly strong Q1 GDP gain – we think that the economy expanded by 9.5% y/y. There is little doubt that the upswing will continue and... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets' gloom could soon hit households and firms Recent market developments, coupled with the prospect of a prolonged bout of fiscal consolidation, appear to be starting to have a damaging impact on confidence in the wider euro-zone economy. In the... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OECD wide of the mark on interest rates Our initial response to the OECD’s recommendation that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of next year (“completely mad”) may have been a bit extreme. Nonetheless, it seems to neglect... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Employment conditions still improving The second successive monthly rise in the unemployment rate in April (to 5.1%) has been widely interpreted as a sign that the recovery in the domestic economy is already faltering. We are unconvinced... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gliding to a soft landing A few weeks ago, the common view was that China was overheating and so heading for a crash. (We strongly disagreed.) The mood now seems to be shifting, partly due to worries about the global outlook... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) Although the gap has narrowed, the IPF Consensus is slightly less upbeat than we are about the commercial property market’s prospects for the rest of 2010 and 2011. Thereafter, however, we remain more... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) The sharp increase in Swedish activity in Q1, coupled with large upward revisions to growth in the preceding quarters, suggests that the Riksbank may bring forward its plans to raise interest rates in... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets hammered by flight to safety Financial markets across the region have been hammered by a flight to safety over the past month as concerns about fiscal sustainability in the euro-zone have reached fever pitch. Equities, currencies... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Spending & CPI (Apr 10) Today’s April data on unemployment (up), household spending and prices (both down) were all worse than expected, although they do not yet make a convincing case that the recovery is faltering. 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia to keep going its own way (Q2 10) We expect the world recovery will lose momentum in 2010-11 but do not anticipate that the recent turmoil in the markets will derail the global upswing. The implication for Asia is that the regional... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
