UK Economics Focus Can private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts? With public sector job cuts looming, the outlook for employment hinges on whether or not hiring in the sector picks up pace. While some recent indicators of employment intentions have been encouraging... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Rental values set to rise next year, but recovery will be slow Upward revisions in the latest survey pushed the IPF Consensus into line with our own view that IPD all-property rental values will stabilise later this year and rise modestly in 2011. Yet, depending... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan targets an ambitious fiscal tightening Pakistan’s annual budget, which was announced over the weekend, aims to narrow the budget deficit by one-two percentage points of GDP by mid-2011. While GDP is likely to accelerate and lift tax... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Recent data offer few fresh clues to the outlook (Jun 10) In view of the looming June Budget, the economic recovery remains worryingly dependent on the inventory cycle and government spending. The prospect of tighter fiscal policy and job losses in the... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone banks back in the spotlight The past week’s data have added to concerns that strains in the region’s periphery are spreading to broader economic activity. While business sentiment remains consistent with a continued recovery for... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery remains fitful Cracks already seem to be appearing in the recovery on the services side of the economy. Admittedly, overall GDP growth in the second quarter could still prove to be fairly reasonable, in part due to... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike soon, but not this month Korea’s central bank meets on Thursday and is likely to keep its policy rate on hold. The Bank of Korea (BoK) will probably wait for market volatility, stemming from an escalation in tensions with... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken without need for intervention Speculation that the elevation of Finance Minister Kan to the premiership makes FX intervention more likely is a pretty poor reason to sell the Japanese currency. Nonetheless, we do expect political... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surveys suggest Mexican industry grew at a decent pace in Q2 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q1 confirms that domestic spending remains weak and with fiscal tightening set to intensify, there is little prospect of an improvement any time soon. 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rise in inflation still likely to be only temporary The further rise in CPI inflation in April – which triggered another letter from the Governor to the Chancellor – prompted claims that the MPC is being too sanguine about the inflation outlook. But we... 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Eastern European currencies buck a weaker euro? We expect currencies across most of Emerging Europe to weaken further against both the euro and US dollar over the next year or so. The Romanian leu looks likely to be the worst performer, while the... 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
