ECB Watch Resisting full-blown QE... for now After making radical changes to unconventional policy just a few weeks ago, further alterations seem unlikely this month. The ECB will give little away about the size and type of future bond purchases... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Too soon to write off the recovery in investment At face value, the weakness of business spending revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey points to a downward revision to Q1 GDP, although not necessarily a very large one (perhaps from... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets shrug off hung parliament (Jun 10) As we expected, markets largely shrugged off the heightened political uncertainty of the last month, suggesting that a hung parliament outcome to the general election was already priced in. Instead... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Political risks to undermine yen further The markets are probably right to shrug off the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, but the fragility of the government is a serious concern given the urgent need for a credible plan to tackle the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium: The weak link of the North Fears that Belgium might be the ‘Greece of the North’ have not yet been picked up by the markets. (See Chart 1.) But with persisting weaknesses in the banking sector and a renewed bout of political... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s GDP slowdown likely to be short-lived Australia’s economy expanded for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q1 but at a slower pace than in late 2009. GDP should accelerate again soon with private sector investment set to take the lead... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand rates will probably move up in Q3 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as was universally expected. The economy warrants higher rates but the political situation needs to stay calmer for longer. We... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The broad money supply has finally started to grow at the rates the MPC was aiming for when it began its policy of quantitative easing (QE). However, we are yet to see a decent pick-up in bank lending... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (May), Commercial property lending (Apr.) and Mergers & acquisitions (Q1) The latest CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property rental values will end 2010 higher than they started it. Given the weak economic outlook, that still seems a little optimistic... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone PPI (Apr.)/Spanish Unemp. & Con. Conf. (May) April’s sharp rise in euro-zone producer price inflation may prompt concerns that inflationary pressures are building. But we continue to think that deflation, rather than a surge in inflation is the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What caused Belgian industrial rents to plunge in Q1? The sharp fall in Belgian industrial rental values in Q1 was probably just a delayed response to the depth of the recession. In any event, we expect the Belgian economy to grow a little faster than... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade growth set to slow into 2011 The latest CPB data suggest that global merchandise trade climbed at a fast pace in March. We have recently upgraded our global GDP forecasts and accordingly have lifted our world trade projections... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The latest rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase cannot disguise the bigger picture of a lending market that is depressed. The subdued picture for net lending might also mean that anyone... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The latest rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase cannot disguise the bigger picture of a lending market that is depressed. The subdued picture for net lending might also mean that anyone... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The latest rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase cannot disguise the bigger picture of a lending market that is depressed. The subdued picture for net lending might also mean that anyone... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
