UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) The Nationwide house price index fell for the third time in four months in October. As such, the data suggest that the key question facing the market is no longer “Will house prices fall?” but rather... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's tightening bias should not last long Recent comments from ECB members, together with a reduction in its bank lending and halt to bond purchases, suggest that the Bank has maintained a tightening bias. It will probably keep open the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers not yet ready to raise rates Today’s decision to keep Polish interest rates unchanged and raise reserve requirements instead reflects an attempt to tighten monetary conditions without attracting an influx of foreign capital... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE2 unlikely to have a major economic impact (Oct 10) At this stage, it would be a fairly big shock if the Fed did not announce a new programme of asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday (3rd November). Chairman... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales (Sep.) September's durable goods orders suggest that the industrial recovery is nearing extinction. With the housing market still in no fit state to pick up the baton of growth, the economy is going to... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to drop to $60pb in 2011 We continue to expect oil prices to fall back towards $60 per barrel (pb) by the end of next year as the dollar recovers and global demand ultimately disappoints, even though this would take them... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a break-up of the euro help or hinder recovery? The long-term effects of some form of break-up of the euro-zone might ultimately prove to be positive. But the likely short-term damage means that such an event would hinder, rather than help, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian growth slows as political stalemate drags on In a sign of what may be to come for the euro-zone, the pace of the Belgian recovery has slowed. While a modest fiscal tightening will partly shield consumers, the political crisis and talk of the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s German CPI data confirmed that, even in the euro-zone’s best-performing economy, price pressures remain very subdued. 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's growth to be slower but better balanced Data published today show that Korea’s GDP growth slowed in Q3. The economy will stay on a slow track for some time and in 2011 overall now looks set to expand at a sub-trend pace. Nevertheless, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the proposed Irish budget cuts be big enough? The Irish Government’s announcement that it will implement an additional fiscal squeeze worth €7.5bn (4.8% of GDP) over the next four years is a big step in the right direction. But we think that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Construction recovery built on fragile foundations The strong revival in construction output has been a key factor behind the recent strength of GDP growth. But we doubt that the sector will continue to support the recovery from here. 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest euro-zone broad money and credit data provide further signs that the problems in the banking sector may be easing. Nonetheless, credit growth remains very weak and supports our view that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia unlikely to remain a 'super saver' for very long We expect the current account surpluses of most of the world’s ‘super savers’ to fall only gradually over the next few years. Russia, however, is the exception. If oil prices drop back to $60pb over... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Smaller Japanese businesses report that conditions are worsening, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which presumably reflects the more challenging global economic environment and the strength... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
