Renminbi gains likely to fade (Oct 10)

The renminbi has risen more than 2% against the dollar since the beginning of September. The US Treasury’s decision to defer publication of its currency report and the upcoming G20 summit will maintain the pressure on China to keep its currency moving at speed for a few more weeks. But the pace of appreciation is then likely to slow, as incoming data show that export growth is in decline. Even if it did not constitute a major policy tightening on its own, last week’s unexpected decision to raise benchmark interest rates is, at the margin, a further reason to suspect that the future pace of renminbi movement could disappoint.