Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening has a long way to go The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly hiked its cash rate by 25bp to 4.75% today. While the exact timing was a surprise, the resumption of monetary tightening was only a matter of when, not... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Ready to respond? (Nov 10) The rescheduling of the Bank of Japan’s next Policy Board meeting to Thursday and Friday this week was surely designed to provide an early opportunity to assess any market fall-out from the US Fed’s... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) Today’s PMI showed that the pace of growth in commercial property construction slowed in October but remained positive. To our minds, however, with economic growth set to slow next year and job losses... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's tightening cycle is just about finished The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as expected, today lifted both the repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25bp. However, inflation will probably slow soon and the RBI is increasingly concerned about high... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry makes a good start to Q4 Manufacturing PMIs strengthened across most of the region in October and continue to point to industrial production growth of between 10-15% y/y over the coming months. But manufacturers in the region... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery still strong, but spending cuts loom (Nov 10) The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in Q3 suggested that the recovery is still progressing nicely. However, the fiscal squeeze is yet to hit – and last month’s Spending Review confirmed that overall... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: 'Currency war' has only just begun A raft of measures announced by the Colombian authorities late last week are unlikely to have much impact on the value of the peso. In the absence of a drop in commodity prices, capital inflows are... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumer spending heading for a double dip (Q4 2010) We continue to think that the biggest fiscal squeeze in decades will bring the consumer recovery to a sharp halt. 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Oct.) & Personal Income (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in October will not prevent the Fed from announcing more quantitative easing (QE) on Wednesday. September's personal spending and income data show that... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's economic upswing still in good shape Thailand data published late last week and earlier today show that activity continues to expand at a brisk pace while inflation remains low. The GDP expansion should stay on track in 2011 and the... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Two priorities for the Dilma administration Continuity is the word in Brazil. After a brief wobble last month, Dilma Rousseff eventually secured the presidency this weekend, defeating Jose Serra in a run-off yesterday. So far as economic policy... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia's industrial slowdown unlikely to turn into a slump Manufacturing PMIs for Asia’s smaller economies and Australia generally declined further in October. The impact of tough external conditions in the US and Europe will continue to come through in... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Oct.) October’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial recovery has some momentum left. But there are still good reasons to think that the recovery will lose further pace in... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) China’s latest PMIs suggest that the economic rebound has further to go. Input prices have picked up, but manufacturers are not passing price increases on to consumers. As a result, the People’s Bank... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery unlikely to maintain recent pace Last week’s news that GDP is estimated to have risen by 0.8% q/q in Q3 suggested that the recovery is ticking along quite nicely. But we would not go as far as some have done in concluding that the... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
