Emerging Europe Chart Pack 'Currency wars' bypass Emerging Europe (Oct 10) Concerns that a rapid influx of capital into emerging markets may sow the seeds of the next bubble do not really apply in Eastern Europe. This is because, so far, at least, capital inflows to the... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Output & CPI (Sep.) Japan's manufacturing output fell in the third quarter, reflecting both weaker exports and the expiry of government car subsidies at home. The outlook for Q4 is grim. However, other parts of the... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Not in a bubble... yet The prospect of further policy easing in the developed world is stoking fears about asset price bubbles in Latin America. High commodity prices, good growth prospects and comparatively high returns... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Construction supporting economic rebound The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) confirms the recent acceleration in quarterly growth that emboldened policymakers to hike interest rates last week. But it also shows that the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outlook for Central London office rents in 2011 now less positive Central London office rents will rise further. However, the revival of the medium-term development pipeline should ease occupiers’ fears about being stuck in unsuitable premises. Together with the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina about to change course? While the death of the powerful former President of Argentina, Nestor Kirchner, is sad news, speculation is mounting that it will lead to a brighter outlook for the economy. It is too soon to tell... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Struggling to find a higher gear (Oct 10) Our econometric model indicates that payroll employment increased by a disappointing 50,000 in October, suggesting that the labour market recovery is still struggling to find a higher gear. Private... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan preparing to match the Fed's QE? The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after next Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery in euro-zone investment volumes is faltering (Q4 10) The recovery in European commercial property investment volumes seen since early 2009 seems to have reached a plateau. Although euro-zone property assets still look relatively attractively priced... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) October’s CBI distributive trades survey suggested that retail spending is still picking up at a rapid rate, but evidence from other sources – including the official sales data – indicate that... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Sep.) The second consecutive monthly drop in the Land Registry measure of house prices is further evidence that the devaluation is becoming more embedded. The fact that house prices are still overvalued... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s improvement in the EC consumer and business survey and fall in German unemployment suggest that the euro-zone is holding up well for now. But the worrying divergence between core and... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's cash rate still likely to move up soon Yesterday’s Q3 consumer price data from Australia were softer than the Reserve Bank (RBA) and consensus had expected. Inflation pressures are still likely to rise over the long run but the RBA would... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Not quite ready to do more QE yet The multitude of comments by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members over the past month have suggested that most are still very open to the idea of re-starting quantitative easing (QE). While the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track to lift rates in early 2011 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to no-one’s surprise, today kept policy rates unchanged at 3.0%. In coming months, we expect that the activity data will surprise on the upside while the RBNZ... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
