We expect the current account surpluses of most of the world’s ‘super savers’ to fall only gradually over the next few years. Russia, however, is the exception. If oil prices drop back to $60pb over the second half of next year and then stay there, as we expect, Russia could run a shortfall on its current account within the next three years. But while this will have important local implications, particularly for the ruble, it is unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to global demand.
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