Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka targets growth over fiscal consolidation Sri Lanka’s budget for 2011, announced today, aims to sustain the upswing by cutting taxes and by lifting private sector investment. While GDP growth will probably stay rapid next year, the budget... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in Malaysia is returning to what is normal Q3 GDP data in Malaysia, released today, were weaker than expected, as was the case with the figures from Thailand. Nevertheless, the big picture is the same in both countries. The expansion is... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Better balanced growth on the way in Thailand Today’s Q3 GDP data for Thailand were weak but growth is just adjusting to what is normal and can be sustained. What’s more, most of the slowdown has probably now come through. We expect the economy... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Our Capital Economics' measure of M3 is falling year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate. The M2 aggregate is growing at an unusually slow pace, and credit is contracting. Over the past 12 months, the 3... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Muted recovery will eventually lead to deflation The US economic recovery shows few signs of any meaningful acceleration, suggesting that unemployment will remain chronically high and inflation will continue to edge towards zero. There is now a... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Q3 growth to disappoint After surprising on the upside in Q2, Brazilian GDP growth appears to have slowed to a paltry 0.3% q/q in the third quarter. The good news is that growth looks likely to accelerate once again in Q4... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland still has a mountain to climb News that Ireland has formally requested financial support has prompted a further drop in Irish bond yields and a small rise in the euro. But Ireland still faces a daunting set of fiscal and economic... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will an Irish bailout package look like? Over the past week, it has become increasingly clear that it is now a matter of when, rather than if, Ireland receives some kind of financial support package. But there are still several unanswered... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand's upswing to pause but unlikely to stall Q3 GDP data are released in Thailand on Monday and will probably show that the economy contracted in q/q terms. However, this should be viewed as just part of the inevitable adjustment to an expansion... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilts' inflation jitters will ease in time The UK gilt market appears to have suffered from a serious bout of the inflation jitters over recent weeks. Sharp rises in global commodity prices and the continued stubbornness of consumer price... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deflation still the real danger Fears that the Fed has put the economy on the path towards rampant inflation looked even more misguided last week when it was announced that core CPI inflation fell to a record low of just 0.6% in... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by the return of "inflation" Consumer prices probably rose year-on-year in October for the first time since 2008, but this would not mark the end of deflation in any meaningful sense. Aside from the occasional spike into positive... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal inevitably follow Ireland? With Ireland on the brink of accepting some kind of bail-out, fears of contagion have intensified. While Portugal is clearly the next in line, it is in a better position than Ireland, which means that... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the region's growth model Emerging Europe’s medium-term growth prospects have been the subject of much discussion this week. Our view is that the ‘quick wins’ from the current growth model have largely been exhausted but that... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q3 10) The latest RICS Construction Survey had a distinctly negative tone, with activity in all sub-sectors falling in Q3. Given construction’s key role in the wider recovery to date, the survey thus... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
