UK Economics Update What does the Irish crisis mean for the UK? Concerns have grown that the Irish debt crisis could have severe consequences for the UK economy. But our impression is that any effects on the UK economy are likely to be pretty small. 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the latest global inflation scare justified? The markets have swung too far from worrying about deflation towards worrying about inflation. To be sure, inflation will be higher than otherwise over the next few months as a result of the recent... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes to remain gradual in Chile The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.0% last night. The strength of the peso means that rate hikes are likely to remain gradual over the coming months. Accordingly... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will detached prices outperform because of tight credit? Detached house prices will prove to be more resilient than other types of residential property in the next two to three years. Higher earners, who disproportionately demand this most expensive type of... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK MPC Minutes & Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting and the latest labour market figures tell us little new about the monetary policy debate. The MPC remains in wait and see mode until clearer signals on the... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q3) The Spanish GDP figures confirmed that the economy narrowly avoided re-entering recession in Q3. But with the full force of the fiscal squeeze yet to be felt and global demand set to slow, it may not... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment market upturn petering out There are clear signs that investment demand for Western European commercial property is beginning to fade. Across the region, transaction volumes have begun to fall, or have levelled off at... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would price controls work? Price controls may appeal to officials eager to be seen to be doing something about rising inflation, but China’s experience with controls has not been encouraging. For markets, they could play either... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Sub-trend economic growth to restrain occupier market (Q4 10) Our forecast is that annual IPD all-property total returns will average about 9% over 2011-14. The big picture is that low and broadly stable bond yields will support property prices over the forecast... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery too weak to end deflation Japan’s economy is on a roller-coaster ride. This year’s growth overall is likely to be the fastest of any G7 country, but GDP will almost certainly shrink in the fourth quarter. Such volatility... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Oct.) After almost completely petering out over the past few months, October's industrial production data suggest that the manufacturing recovery may be gathering momentum again, driven by demand for... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's manufacturing sales provide further evidence supporting the view that growth in real GDP slowed further in the third quarter, possibly to as weak as 1% annualised, which would make Canada... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More Bank of Korea rate hikes on the way The Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% today, in a move we had expected but which surprised the Bloomberg consensus. The economy should regain momentum over the next 12 months... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Support would not solve all Ireland's problems It seems increasingly likely that Ireland may soon bow to pressure and ask for financial support. But while such an outcome may temporarily settle the markets, the fundamental picture will remain... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
