UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q3) Lending to the buy-to-let sector noticeably outperformed the wider market in the third quarter. But there is reason to expect lending to the sector to weaken soon. 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Firms' high ROE does not justify a re-rating of US equities US nonfarm, nonfinancial companies have enjoyed a rapid increase in their return on equity (ROE). This does not, however, imply that the stock market is attractively valued. For one thing, the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q3) The continued fall in the numbers of arrears and possessions in the third quarter is encouraging. But figures showing an increase in possession orders being sought and awarded may mean that the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much longer will Hong Kong hold on to its dollar peg? The viability of Hong Kong’s dollar peg is again in question although the evidence linking recent asset price movements to the peg is weaker than many think. In any case, none of the alternatives to... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tightening on the way Consumer price inflation rose more than expected last month, but it continues to be solely a food price problem. Of more concern is that loan growth has not slowed, despite strong signals from the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) Machinery orders surged in the third quarter, supporting our view that a rebound in investment spending will contribute to an above-consensus increase in GDP in the official data released next week... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the markets running ahead of themselves? Asset prices of all types have surged following the announcement of additional QE from the US Fed, raising concerns about bubbles. The focus of these concerns has typically been on financial markets... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: widening imbalances are the risk, not slowing growth Data showing that Turkish industrial production fell in September grabbed a few headlines earlier this week. This is perhaps understandable given that manufacturers have so far led the recovery. But... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's problems still mounting Reports that Greece’s 2010 budget deficit is likely to have narrowed much less sharply than the Government had previously predicted emphasise that its problems are far from over. Greece will now come... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) September's US international trade figures may give Chinese officials travelling to Seoul for tomorrow's G20 summit something to cling to. But the key point is that the US bilateral trade deficit with... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September trade data indicate that net exports were a significant drag on thirdquarter real economic growth and leading indicators point to more of the same in the near future. Indeed, with prospects... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the tide turning against the euro? The near 20% rise in the euro against the US dollar over the last six months has clearly not sat comfortably with our prediction back in May that the single currency would depreciate further and drop... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) The Bank of England’s November Inflation Report suggested that the door is still open for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to follow the US Fed in extending its programme of asset purchases. 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will the next big move in interest rates be down? Policymakers in some countries have raised the prospect that interest rates may be cut in response to recent rapid currency appreciation. But while we would not dismiss the possibility altogether –... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
