Better balanced growth on the way in Thailand

Today’s Q3 GDP data for Thailand were weak but growth is just adjusting to what is normal and can be sustained. What’s more, most of the slowdown has probably now come through. We expect the economy to pick up speed again in coming quarters. Our view on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) policy tightening is unchanged. The BoT will probably keep rates at 1.75% next week before then lifting rates to 3.0% by end-2011. In contrast, markets expect only another 25-50bp of tightening.

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