Europe Economics Update Irish bailout details provide markets with little comfort The further details of the Irish bailout package and the euro-zone’s permanent crisis resolution mechanism confirm that Germany and other European hardliners are in no mood to make major concessions... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The sixth consecutive monthly fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase underlines the message that the mortgage market is severely depressed. We expect it to remain that way throughout 2011. 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) & Small Business Conf. (Nov.) October's drop in retail sales, like that in September, was exaggerated by the expiry of government subsidies for car purchases. The trends in overall consumer spending are healthier than the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's upswing to stay in good shape This week’s Q3 GDP data in India will probably show that growth slowed in y/y terms to 8.6%. Nevertheless, our estimate of the GDP trend in q/q seasonally-adjusted terms suggests that growth... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US banks’ exposure to Europe has fallen While the health of European banks is once again in question, the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory for US banks. So far this year, they have enjoyed a decent rise in net income. Moreover... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German growth amid peripheral peril Ireland’s bailout and four-year fiscal plan have failed to reduce concerns about the euro-zone’s periphery. In fact, they are spreading again, most worryingly to Spain. While the risk of such a large... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospects Last week’s bailout for Ireland did little to ease concerns about the troubled euro-zone periphery. At least the UK banking sector’s exposure to the so-called “PIIGS” – Portugal, Ireland, Italy... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest money and credit figures show that annual lending growth is continuing to pick up. Nonetheless, with the periphery’s banks still in a vulnerable position, the ECB’s plan for a gradual... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook for Peru still good, but policy challenges mounting Peruvian GDP growth slowed in Q3, but the outlook remains good. The key challenge for policymakers will be to channel an influx of foreign capital into productive capacity and prevent overheating. By... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falls in Budapest retail yields be extended any further? Given our fairly downbeat view on Hungary’s consumer sector outlook, the continued above-average performance of the Budapest retail investment market is difficult to rationalise. In our view, the weak... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More to the inflation story than just the core The consensus is usually right to focus on the core measures of Japan’s CPI when looking at the prospects for a permanent end to deflation and the implications for monetary policy. Nonetheless, trends... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s rise in German HICP inflation reflected a temporary boost from the energy and food components. The rate remains low, at 1.6%, and looks set to fall again in the coming months as these... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov) Respondents to the Q4 IPF Consensus expect that a 6% gain in all-property capital values this year will give way to a modest fall of 2% next year, driven by higher yields. We also expect prices to... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Oct.) The second consecutive monthly drop in the Land Registry measure of house prices is further evidence that the devaluation is becoming more embedded. The fact that house prices are still overvalued... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response National CPI (Oct.) The return of inflation to Japan last month was widely expected and likely to be temporary, but this does not mean it should be ignored completely. 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
