Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth picking up, but imbalances set to grow in 2011 The pick-up in Polish GDP growth to 4.2% y/y in Q3 (from 3.5% y/y in Q2) is further evidence that the economic recovery is gathering momentum and is likely to strengthen calls for interest rate hikes... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's upswing will stay in good shape Q3 GDP data in India, published today, showed that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace. The upswing will probably stay strong and slowing inflation will remain the top policy priority. We... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on the euro-zone economy suggests that the recent strength of activity in the region is doing little to raise price pressures or improve conditions in the labour market. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Where will the property to bond yield spread go next? We suspect that the next material move in the property to bond yield spread is more likely to be down than up. That move may still be some way off, however, perhaps not even until 2013. But, when it... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Industrial Production (Oct.) As usual the latest Japanese data include something for everyone, with unemployment edging higher but industrial production not as weak as feared in October and expected to recover. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q3 GDP data reaffirm twin speed recovery (Nov 10) Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years, but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. This was borne out... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone peripheral government debt to remain under pressure 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank has probably tightened enough The central bank in Pakistan (SBP) today lifted its discount rate by 50bp to 14.0%, as we had expected. The annual gain in consumer prices should peak in coming months and inflation pressures from the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will a strong krona derail the recovery in Swedish industrial rents? The recent strength of the Swedish krona has not prevented a modest recovery in industrial rents. Yet, further appreciation looks imminent and the growth outlook in Sweden’s key export markets is weak... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rate hike reflects political, not economic, concerns The outlook for inflation does not offer a particularly convincing justification for this afternoon’s surprise decision to raise Hungarian interest rates. Instead, we think the move is best viewed as... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR sounds a cautious note The downgrades to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic growth forecasts for the next two years are hardly a vote of confidence in the Government’s claim that the economy is capable of... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns to temper rate hikes Strong capital inflows continue to create something of a headache for policymakers in Latin America. On the one hand, growth should remain strong over the coming quarters, while the inflation outlook... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer survey confirmed that the sovereign debt crisis in Ireland and elsewhere is not yet standing in the way of a broader recovery in the euro-zone economy. But the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is still little evidence of any pick-up in the growth rate of the broad money supply – supporting Mervyn King’s view that inflation will fall further ahead. Meanwhile, bank lending remains... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct) Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in October. Low gross lending and borrowers’ focus on repaying existing debt are both likely to have contributed to that weak net figure... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish bailout details provide markets with little comfort The further details of the Irish bailout package and the euro-zone’s permanent crisis resolution mechanism confirm that Germany and other European hardliners are in no mood to make major concessions... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
