Industrial Metals Update Possible flaws in the ‘‘iron ore plan’’ The ongoing surge in iron ore supply had been expected, but perhaps what has taken markets by surprise is the increasing likelihood that demand could falter, even at these low prices. We think prices... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The Polish MPC was uncharacteristically forthright in its statement that today’s 50bp cut in the policyinterest rate, to 1.5%, marked the end of the easing cycle. But it’s clear that weak price... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) Today’s disappointing PMI readings from China could have a silver lining for commodities: the data are not bad enough to justify market fears of an imminent “hard landing”, but they may prompt... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) With inflation hitting zero in February, the UK is on the cusp of deflation. But a brief period of gently falling prices driven by lower energy prices is nothing to be feared – in the UK, at least... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s further rise in the euro-zone composite PMI adds to the signs that the region’s economic recovery may have picked up a bit of pace in Q1. But growth remains pretty sluggish and France is still... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The surge in small business confidence in March is likely to prove short lived, as firms predict a renewed weakening in April. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Policymakers aiming to support cyclical rebound The past month has shown that India's authorities are still leaning towards policy loosening to support a cyclical rebound in economic growth, despite the strength of the revised GDP data. For a start... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's PMI reading adds to evidence of a sharp slowdown in Q1. We expect policymakers to respond by stepping up measures to support growth. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The second straight drop in the manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength in industrial activity is unlikely to last. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan is unlikely to join Asia's rate-cutting cycle Despite slowing growth, a bout of deflation and a housing market that has recently taken a turn for the worse, Taiwan is unlikely to join the Asian rate-cutting cycle at its upcoming meeting. 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s good news should be treated with caution A continued economic recovery and the Government’s early repayment of IMF loans have allowed Portugal to distance itself further from beleaguered Greece. But with debt still worryingly high and the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The modest rise in existing home sales in February suggests that the market is now recovering after a weak start to the year. Looser credit conditions and the strength of the wider economy should... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2015 Business sentiment has deteriorated this quarter however there has been a pick-up in reported loan demand, perhaps spurred by recent policy easing. Meanwhile, fewer households believe house prices are... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the turn in the dollar The last few days have seen a sharp reversal in the tone of commentary on the dollar: speculation about a surge to parity against the euro has been replaced by talk that the broad-based rally is over... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the jump in Brazilian inflation We estimate that all of the jump in inflation in Brazil over the past year can be explained by increases in government-regulated prices and a drought-related rise in food costs. Both of these effects... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
