Capital Daily UK election may cause more market turbulence than the Budget 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices to rebound despite higher US interest rates The conventional view is that the price of gold will inevitably suffer large and sustained falls when the Fed begins to return US interest rates towards more normal levels. But while we would expect... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in US crude imports helped propel oil stocks to yet another record high last week. However, gasoline stocks appear to have peaked, at least for now. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s output gap won’t solve its debt problems The vast amount of spare capacity in the Greek economy means that the underlying state of the public finances is rather better than the headline numbers suggest. But it would be wrong to conclude that... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Krona’s rise forces Sweden’s Riksbank to ease policy again The Swedish Riksbank unexpectedly loosened monetary policy further today, citing the deflationary risks from the stronger krona, and said it was prepared to do more if needed. With the ECB’s QE likely... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are labour shortages still holding back homebuilding? Anecdotal evidence suggests that labour shortages continue to hold back homebuilding. However, there are few signs in the macroeconomic data of a widespread problem. Instead, we expect stronger... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Poland’s industrial production and retail sales data for February suggest that the economy grew by a solid 3% y/y or so last month. As a result, even though the economy fell further into deflation... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) GDP growth in Chile accelerated in both quarterly and annual terms in the final quarter of last year, driven by strong government spending and a sharp pick-up in investment. What’s more, the current... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Jan/Q4) Today’s employment data offer additional encouragement for commercial landlords, adding further weight to the idea that occupier confidence is high and that there is little sign that expansionary... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade & Construction (Jan.) January’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the region’s exports are still not benefitting substantially from the weakness of the euro. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) The latest labour market figures were a bit disappointing, but there was enough good news for the Chancellor to trumpet in his Budget later today. Meanwhile, the latest MPC minutes echoed Governor... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki holds rates but will hike later this year Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today as it waits to judge the outcome of the ongoing wage negotiations. But with labour market tensions growing and the Sedlabanki raising... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Floating currencies in the Gulf a long way off Recent calls for the Gulf countries to ditch their dollar pegs and allow their currencies to float are likely to fall on deaf ears. While there are some arguments in favour of shifting to more... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist 2015 This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Budget at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. For a more detailed look at our... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) While corporate debt increased at the fastest pace in years last quarter, the increase has been more than offset by higher corporate assets. With corporate profits at record-highs, firms are well... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
