Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar will remain down for a long time The slump in crude oil prices has changed the Bank of Canada's game plan and, we fear, could prove to be the trigger that bursts the housing bubble, derailing the economy in the process. Under these... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand is vulnerable to Australian slowdown The hit to New Zealand’s exports from the economic slowdown in Australia is going to be felt at almost the exact same time as the boost to activity from the domestic construction boom starts to fade... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate, to 6.8% from 6.6%, reflects the early negative effects of a downturn in the mining sector. Accordingly, this supports our... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices wilt in face of surging dollar Most commodity prices fell further this week, undermined by the continued strength of the US currency and soft economic data from China. The prices of crude oils, especially the traditional US... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) & Czech IP & Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y drop in Polish consumer prices last month was driven largely by an even steeper fall in petrol prices. Meanwhile, Czech activity data released today show that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasuries still vulnerable to a recalibration of rate expectations 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold With other analysts reportedly revising down their forecasts and the media coverage almost entirely downbeat, we thought it worth dusting off some of our favourite gold charts. These suggest that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold With other analysts reportedly revising down their forecasts and the media coverage almost entirely downbeat, we thought it worth dusting off some of our favourite gold charts. These suggest that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pension reforms: Ford Fiestas, not Lamborghinis The pension reforms that come into effect next month create the potential for tens of billions of pounds to be transferred out of pension funds and into the wider economy. The actual amount that will... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector boosts its borrowing The $79bn increase in household debt in the fourth quarter was dwarfed by the $211bn increase in non-financial corporate debt. The latter was the biggest increase since 2007. 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank cuts rates further Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100bps appears to have been driven by the stabilisation of the ruble over the past month. Barring a renewed... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) For the second year in a row, the unseasonably severe winter weather appears to have hit retail sales, which contracted by 0.6% m/m in February. As a result, we now anticipate that first-quarter GDP... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic retail set for solid growth, but Finland will disappoint Low inflation and historically low interest rates in the Nordic region will support real wage growth and rising house prices in every market bar Finland. With consumer spending growth set to benefit... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
