Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s modest rise in the ZEW investor sentiment index suggests that hopes for the German economy have been tempered by worries over the effects of the Greek crisis. 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but further loosening likely soon Having surprised markets last month with a rate cut, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%. Although we expect to see further rate cuts this year, the pace of easing is... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The sharp fall in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q4, from 5.8% to 5.1% of GDP, was driven almost entirely by a fall in imports, which reflects lower energy costs. Nonetheless, given the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still likely to ease preemptively next month Despite the recent run of stronger data, the Bank of Japan was no more upbeat on the economic outlook at today’s meeting than before. Consumer price inflation is likely to turn negative soon... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What do China’s prospects mean for commodity prices? The growth rate of China’s economy has already halved since 2007, from over 14% to around 7%. What’s more, this slowdown has been the main reason why the prices of many commodities have performed so... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is growth in the euro-zone about to outpace that in the US? Some indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy may grow faster than the US in Q1. But this is largely because unusually severe weather has hit US activity. While the euro-zone economy has gained... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production fall only temporary Another small fall in OPEC’s production still leaves a large supply glut in the market. It won’t be until demand picks up in the second half of this year that the market may rebalance. 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar to put further pressure on price of soybeans The large fall in weekly soybean export sales suggests that the strong dollar is starting to reduce the competitiveness of US exporters. And with a large Brazilian harvest underway, we think the price... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Western investors turning positive on copper Investor sentiment towards copper has been negative since late 2014. While some of copper’s recent price resilience probably has to do with short-covering, there are tentative signs that sentiment is... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production figures continue the recent run of weak news on the US economy and may make some Fed officials more inclined to keep interest rates on hold for longer. Nonetheless, we... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France will struggle to meet its new fiscal targets, again While France has been given an extra two years to meet its new budget targets set by Brussels, we think that it will still struggle to achieve the necessary fiscal consolidation given France’s... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia makes weak start to the year Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed to under 2% y/y at the start of this year. Consumer spending may receive a boost over the coming months following King Salman’s... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation dropped further into negative territory in February to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. This was in part due to falling oil prices, but low core inflation... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spacecraft QQE needs fresh fuel to reach 2% orbit The economy seems to have picked up speed since the start of the year, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely end with a sizeable increase in base pay. However, inflation has continued... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
