Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Time to think again about US natural gas prices? A relatively mild winter, at least across most of the country, and a continued increase in production have allowed gas stocks to rebuild and prices to fall. However, a fall in the number rigs drilling... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) While the public finances have finally shown significant improvement in recent months, they have not lessened the need for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze soon after the election. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank of Chile likely to bide its time Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3% last night but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle shift in tone from the central bank, which now seems to think that inflation is likely to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A looming fall in gas exports adds to concerns in Russia Because Russia’s export gas price seems to follow oil prices with a six to nine month lag, the recent fall in oil prices has not yet fully fed into Russia’s gas export earnings. Admittedly, gas... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will QE provide a boost to Frankfurt office occupier demand? The ECB’s QE programme will be a modest boon for some financial firms. And it should help to sustain the recent rise in financial sector confidence. In turn, that should feed through into occupier... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy slowing sharper than headlines suggest Canada's economy continued to lose momentum in the final quarter of last year and the slowdown was only partly due to lower oil prices. Furthermore, the seemingly gradual slowdown in headline GDP... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar heat wilts agricultural prices It was a poor month for agricultural commodity markets as the bear that is the US dollar continues to put downward pressure on prices. Coffee and sugar prices in particular fared poorly as the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Big squeeze still lies ahead after election Whilst there were a few sweeteners for households in this year’s Budget, the boost to households’ incomes in the near term was meagre. Accordingly, it is strong consumer confidence, rising real wages... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar dominates Commodity prices have been dragged lower across the board by the strength of the dollar over the last month. Concerns about Chinese demand have also weighed on prices, particularly of industrial... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What did we take away from Egypt’s investor conference? Egypt’s recent Economic and Development Conference, which was seen as a milestone in the government’s strategy to raise much-needed investment, saw the announcement of further financial support from... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) Working day effects exacerbated the weakness in February’s activity data from Russia but don’t change the bigger picture of an economy sliding deeper into recession. Consumers are still bearing the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy should be able to cope with Fed tightening Concerns about the global impact of tighter Fed policy are likely to resurface later this year, but we think these worries are exaggerated. Even if rates are hiked, US monetary policy will remain... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
