Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stuck at post-crisis low Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM GDP growth has remained stuck at just over 4.0% y/y in recent months – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, the aggregate figure... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: What to expect after the election Saturday’s election will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the result. Beyond this, another term for incumbent... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currency strength one reason Asian rates will stay low, for now Currency strength in Emerging Asia has been a factor in the region's recent wave of policy loosening. It appears to be undermining export competitiveness and has helped push inflation down further... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The further acceleration in broad money growth in February is indicative of a strengthening real economic recovery that will eventually put more upward pressure on underlying inflation. The annual... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade weaker in January World trade volumes fell in January, following an increase the previous month. Looking ahead, a number of factors suggest that the growth of world trade may pick up a bit in the coming months, but we... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth likely to pick up after weak first quarter Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that the pace of global growth in Q1 was little changed from the end of last year. But this is partly due to weather-related disruption in the US... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is housing demand really as weak as some surveys suggest? Despite a very favourable economic backdrop, the RICS new buyer enquires balance has yet to report any rise in housing demand. But other indicators do show that underlying demand is strengthening... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone converge with the US? While lower inflation and the drop in the euro might boost growth in the euro-zone relative to that in the US, structural constraints, respective policy conditions and the effects of the Greek crisis... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What hope for sugar prices? The world price of sugar has fallen to a six-year low. While recent weakness can be attributed to the fall in the value of the Brazilian real and a decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Together with the rise in existing home sales reported yesterday, the surge in new home sales, to a seven-year high in February, appears to confirm that the weakness in housing activity at the start... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a few more small rate cuts on the cards Having resumed its easing cycle earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that a few more small rate cuts are likely over the coming months. For now, we have pencilled in 30bp of rate cuts, which... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Current Account (Feb.) February’s balance of payments data will do little to ease investor’s concerns about Brazil’s current account deficit. Although the 12-month rolling deficit narrowed a touch in dollar terms, it... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports take a turn for the worse Emerging Asia’s exports have taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Leaving out China, the region’s merchandise exports, measured in US dollar terms, contracted at the sharpest annual rate in... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%. But there is a good... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will consumer optimism translate into stronger retail rental growth? Euro-zone consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2007. While the long-term consumption outlook remains challenging, elevated sentiment should nevertheless help support retail rental value... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
