Canada Economics Weekly Impact of oil price shock bigger than most think The collapse in domestic drilling activity, triggered by the slump in oil prices, which has been compounded by another year of unseasonably bad winter weather, has been severe enough to indicate that... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Still little sign that the strong US labour market is squeezing margins 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lumber price to rise despite higher interest rates Despite the likelihood of higher US interest rates this year, demand prospects and mortgage affordability should continue to support higher housing starts, lifting the price of lumber. 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Middle East tensions boost oil prices A variety of factors have lifted commodity prices this past week. Renewed Middle East fears following events in Yemen boosted oil and gold. Copper prices continued their gradual recovery, helped by... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Currency movements reinforce the case for looser policy The path of monetary policy in the US and UK is unlikely to change significantly because of the recent appreciation of the dollar and the pound. Admittedly, the strength of these currencies is one... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing will continue to normalise A gradual rise in borrowing costs as the Fed raises interest rates from historic lows won’t derail the housing recovery. We expect favourable affordability, looser credit conditions and the strength... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver outshining gold Silver has out-performed gold this year during periods when the prices of both have been rising, as usual, but it has also held on to more of its gains when both have struggled. This supports our... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise (and fall) of the machines The recent weakness in durable goods orders and shipments is not due to a mining-related slump triggered by the collapse in oil prices. Instead, it is principally due to a drop back in industrial... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc to continue to outperform Even with cautious demand estimates, the deficit in the zinc market will deepen this year. As such, we expect zinc prices to rise and to outperform many of the other metals. 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers look ready to start spending Buoyed by falling unemployment, rising equity prices and a boost to their spending power from a lower oil price, euro-zone consumers have become increasingly confident, with the EC’s measure of... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Zero inflation doesn’t boost case for rate cut For a country that has spent much of its recent history battling high inflation, last week’s data showing that inflation hit zero in February was something of a watershed moment. However, we don’t... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The better-than-expected 0.3% q/q increase in Brazilian GDP in Q4 will get the headlines, but an excessive reliance on over-stretched consumers to drive growth remains a concern. Meanwhile, revisions... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide (Mar.) & Land Registry (Feb.) House Prices The Nationwide reported house prices more-or-less held their ground in March, pushing the annual rate down to its lowest level since September 2013. But the Land Registry reported stronger gains and... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation of Thailand’s credit bubble has further to run Although credit growth in Thailand has cooled over the past few years, the process of deflating the country’s credit bubble is still far from over. Given this, the Bank of Thailand’s decision earlier... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are firms borrowing more? Despite exceptionally strong corporate profits and falling investment, corporate debt increased by the most since 2008 last quarter. With interest costs at record lows, firms seem to be borrowing to... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
