BoE Watch “Noflation” unlikely to prompt rate cut We think that the deflation likely to be seen in the coming months will of the “good” sort, lasting only a short while and boosting households’ spending power. So we doubt that a rate cut – as floated... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recession spreading unevenly across the economy The slump in Russia’s economy has been spreading unevenly across various sectors with consumers bearing the brunt of the economy’s problems. By contrast, the hit to the manufacturing sector has so far... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities remain in thrall to the dollar The ebb and flow of sentiment towards the US currency continues to be a key driver of commodity markets and especially gold and silver, keeping prices sensitive to the latest US economic data and... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Did Chinese New Year distort Japan’s activity data? The unusually late timing of Chinese New Year may have distorted Japan’s recent activity data by causing a surge in output and exports in January followed by a slump in February. However, firms... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in March, but the bigger picture is that conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does an iron ore price of $50 mean for Australia? While it is certainly not good news, a fall in the iron ore price to US$50 a tonne or below is neither here nor there when compared with the drop from $US130 to $US70 last year. What’s more, the full... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A fall in US output and higher demand from refineries helped to reduce the amount of oil flowing into storage last week. But stocks are still rising. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth to recover in Q2 It is now clear that there was a sharp drop in global growth in the first quarter of 2015. But activity is likely to rebound in the second and third quarters, just as it did last year. Indeed, the... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Do buy-to-let investors have an advantage over other buyers? The ability to deduct mortgage interest before paying tax on rental income does not offer buy-to-let investors an advantage over owner-occupiers. But the fact that investors are not subject to the... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 22-month low of 51.5 in March, from 52.9, illustrates that the stronger dollar and soft overseas demand are still an obstacle for export... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ample US grain and soybean stocks to push prices lower USDA data on grain and soybean stocks continue to indicate a market brimming with supplies. We remain of the view that corn, wheat and soybean prices will fall further this year. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The best that can be said about February’s industrial production data from Brazil is that the fall in output was not quite as large as some had feared. Production was affected by a strike in the... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recently published data show that Spain, Portugal and France made headway in reducing their general government deficits in 2014. But progress among the peripheral countries at the start of 2015 has... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will stronger industrial output drive CE industrial rental growth? A combination of strengthening industrial output and further growth in the logistics sector will underpin industrial rental levels in Central Europe this year and allow them to pick up from 2016. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
