Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) The Credit Conditions Survey painted a weak picture of the residential mortgage market, but confirmed that the commercial lending market is improving. While the supply of residential mortgages is... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data showed that while the consumer recovery remained fairly strong, it did not pick up further pace. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in inflation likely to reverse soon After edging up in March, inflation is set to ease again – although remain positive – in coming months before rebounding in the second half of the year. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still likely to expand QQE later this month The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today and Governor Kuroda indicated that the Board doesn’t see the need for additional stimulus at the moment. However, Mr Kuroda has a record of... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) In contrast to the rather disappointing Tankan survey, the fourth straight rise in the Economy Watchers Survey suggests that economic conditions continue to improve. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Feb.) The current account surplus dropped in February, but should remain broadly stable going forward as a higher oil import bill should be offset by rising investment income. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will weak French growth hold back property returns? The anaemic growth outlook for the French economy in 2015 and 2016 does not bode well for a recovery in occupier demand. But increased competition for the best space amongst both tenants and investors... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iranian oil likely to come back to the market, just not yet The preliminary deal reached between Iran and the Western powers should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, some of the finer details still have to be... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget: a fiscal squeeze is looming The assumptions underpinning Russia’s 2015 budget, currently working its way through parliament, look realistic, suggesting that the government is finally starting to wake up to the extent of the... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big falls in the Brazilian real are probably behind us The Brazilian real has come under renewed pressure over the past couple of months as markets have responded to an ugly mix of a stagnant economy and a deepening political crisis that is threatening to... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three scenarios for Turkey after the election Turkish financial markets are becoming increasingly worried about what lies in store after June’s parliamentary election, with fears focusing on the risk of rising authoritarianism under President... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) March’s UK Markit/CIPS report on services provided further reassurance that the economic recovery is still on a fast track despite the uncertainty created by the upcoming general election. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) The latest whole economy PMIs from the MENA region suggest that, in spite of lower oil prices, the Gulf economies are still holding up well. Meanwhile, activity in Egypt’s economy appears to have... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Door for further rate cuts still open Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on March’s rate cut in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.50% and 6.50% respectively. But further rate cuts are... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
