Capital Daily What can euro-zone corporate bonds tell us about the effect of QE? 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Palm oil price to continue falling With ample supply and lower prices of competing vegetable oils, we expect the price of palm oil to fall further this year. 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Construction weakness due to seasonal adjustment failure At first glance, the recent monthly construction spending figures look awful. The three-month-on-three-month growth rate of residential construction spending at least climbed back into positive... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB trumps Bank of Japan? Although the asset purchase programme announced by the ECB this year is smaller than that announced by the Bank of Japan in 2013, the initial response of financial markets has, if anything, been... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Current account cloud casting shadow over recovery Last week’s National Accounts showed that the economic recovery had plenty of wind in its sails in the fourth quarter. However, there remains one cloud hanging over the recovery which has yet to be... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece & the ECB both have a lot more work to do The more detailed list of proposed reforms submitted by Greece last week potentially provided the basis for an agreement that will allow it to meet its near-term financial obligations. But the tussles... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both imports and exports in February suggest that the West Coast port dispute had a bigger impact than we had anticipated. Exports fell by 1.6% m/m in February, while imports... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile set to shift into tightening mode Concerns about the recent strength of inflation in Chile are partly overdone given that it has been elevated by tax hikes which will unwind over the next year. But a relatively buoyant labour market... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update No light at the end of the tunnel for coal prices We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consumers in China, the US and Europe continue to move away from coal power. 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Pain before gain for aluminium prices The aluminium market appears to be undergoing a fundamental shift this year with falling stocks and lower price premiums. The incentive for investors to hold aluminium stocks is waning. In this Metals... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB March minutes will dampen talk of early QE taper The minutes of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 4th and 5th March should help to dampen suggestions that the recent signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy will prompt the ECB to end its... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI won’t need to follow the Fed The first rate hike in the US is edging closer, but India’s dramatically improved external position and the fact that the rupee has strengthened in recent months suggest that the Reserve Bank of India... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly AIIB – what is all the fuss about? Poor infrastructure is likely to remain a key constraint on economic development across large parts of Emerging Asia over the next decade. For all the headlines, the Asian Infrastructure Investment... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.) The construction PMI moved down to 57.8 in March, meaning that it has reversed the gains made over the first two months of the year. Nevertheless, the rise in the future business expectations index to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
