US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 101.3 in March, from 98.8, should reassure those worried that households haven't yet spent their savings stemming from the slump... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery rests on strong foundations The latest figures on households’ finances provided some further encouraging evidence that the consumer recovery rests on solid foundations. With real incomes set to rise robustly this year, and... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currencies and equity markets drop back Most equity markets and currencies in Emerging Asia fell last month, although in the majority of cases the declines were relatively small. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets unfazed by Nigeria election so far The surprisingly smooth organisation of Nigeria’s 28 th March election has had little effect on the country’s financial markets so far. A violent crisis remains possible, however, if the losing... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Why aren’t banks lending more? Recent cuts to policy interest rates should eventually help to boost bank lending in India, the weakness of which has been a significant cause of the economic slowdown over the past few years. But... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) The latest data on euro-zone inflation and unemployment did not lift the threat of a prolonged period of deflation in the currency union. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update European gas prices heading back down We expect European natural gas prices to fall this year as greater supply and the impact of lower oil prices more than offset higher demand. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The latest set of national accounts leave the economic recovery at the end of last year looking a bit stronger than before. We expect growth to remain robust this year, although the large current... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey shows that forecasts for capital values in 2015 and 2016 are notably higher than in November’s survey. Accordingly, despite the already low level of... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rise in the GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence to a 12-year high in March adds to other signs suggesting that households are poised to spend their windfall from lower energy prices. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% y/y in Q4, driven by an uptick in consumer spending. But more timely activity data suggest that this improvement was short-lived, with growth... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia simply taking a long-term view of the oil market Saudi Arabia’s lack of a response to the plunge in oil prices has triggered a torrent of conspiracy theories, including plots to hurt Russia and Iran. These have been given extra prominence in light... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese equities surge to seven-year high Chinese equity markets surged over the past month to the highest in more than seven years, with sentiment boosted by growing expectations for further policy support. Meanwhile, the renminbi has... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why wait? Regardless of whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts interest rates from the current rate of 2.25% to 2.00% at the April or May policy meeting (we slightly favour a move at the meeting on... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen, Bernanke and the equilibrium real rate In an attempt to justify leaving the fed funds rate at near-zero until some time later this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week hinted that she thought the current equilibrium (or neutral) real... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Some encouraging signs Broad money growth in the euro-zone has accelerated to its fastest rate since April 2009, supporting other evidence that the recovery there is gaining some momentum. Meanwhile, the pick-up in broad... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
