Consumer Prices (Feb.)

The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%. But there is a good chance that base effects will drive that inflation rate back into negative territory for most of the first half of this year. Once the one-off drop in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, however, headline inflation will snap back sharply in early 2016.