Africa Economics Update South Africa: Waking up to fiscal realities Today’s ‘mini-budget’ was a painful admission that South Africa clearly faces a slowly-unfolding fiscal crisis. The gloomy tone may be an attempt to push for unpalatable economic reforms. But today’s... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s ‘mini budget’: What to look out for South African’s finance minister will try to use tomorrow’s budget speech to put a positive spin on a very worrying situation. In striking a compromise between the need to boost the economy with... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Lingering power problems set to drag on growth Investors’ worries about South Africa’s power sector often focus on Eskom’s growing debts. But a recent government report has also underlined the risk that the faltering grid will struggle to meet... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation edged down to 4.1% in September, but we expect that increasing fuel price pressures will cause the headline rate to rise later this year, preventing monetary easing. 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: GDP flat in August, risk of Q3 contraction South Africa’s retail sector didn’t perform as badly as the mining or manufacturing sectors in August, but there is still a growing risk the economy contracted over Q3 as a whole. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Risk of contraction in Q3 Weak industrial figures for August present the very real risk that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. Even if growth remained positive, the recovery seen in Q2 has clearly faded. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s PMI slumped to a decade low of 41.6 in September, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains very weak. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery loses momentum Activity data for July suggest that South Africa’s recovery lost steam at the start of Q3. We remain comfortable with our below-consensus growth forecast of 0.5% for this year as a whole. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation remained below the target midpoint in August, which we think will allow policymakers to cut their key rate from 6.50% to 6.25% at their meeting tomorrow. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery already waning Despite the slight improvement in the manufacturing sector, the batch of activity figures for July suggests that South Africa’s economic recovery in Q2 faded at the start of Q3. This adds to reasons... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound, but underlying growth weak South Africa’s economy made a surprisingly strong recovery in Q2, growing by 3.1% q/q saar, but growth remained weak at a year-on-year rate. Given soft demand and low petrol prices, we expect that... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in August, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains weak. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Treasury plan puts pressure on president The unexpected release of economic reform proposals by South Africa’s treasury is probably an attempt to push the president to announce a more ambitious plan at October’s budget speech. The plan... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation slipped to just 4.0% y/y in July, supporting our view that policymakers will cut their policy rate from 6.50% to 6.25% in September. This is a strongly non-consensus view. 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tepid recovery in Q2, rate cut still likely June retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that the economy returned to growth in Q2. But the recovery was soft – we estimate around 1.6% q/q saar – and we still think that... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
