Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) After widening in Q1, South Africa’s current account deficit will likely narrow later this year. The deficit strengthens calls for a rate hike, though we maintain that the SARB will leave rates on... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation eased slightly in May, which should reduce speculation that the SARB will hike rates in the coming months. We think that policymakers will keep rates on hold, before cutting in... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak start to Q2 Today’s mining figures confirmed that, following a disappointing Q1, South Africa’s economy weakened even more at the start of the Q2. We still think that the economy will strengthen this year. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production South Africa’s manufacturing sector strengthened in April, but a key portion of the industry continued to contract. In q/q terms, growth was actually weaker than in Q1. 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ‘Ramaphoria’ stalls in Q1 South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q1, underlining the scale of the task facing President Ramaphosa. Growth will pick up later this year, but will remain weak by historical standards. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.) Today’s manufacturing PMI – which fell to 49.8 – provides yet more evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in early 2018. We retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pro-business reform in Africa: Angola stands out Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa will reform South Africa’s economy have grabbed the headlines. But reforms are also underway elsewhere; recent pro-business moves in Angola show the most potential... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Hawkish tone, but rates on hold for now South African policymakers, who left their key rate at 6.50% today, struck a hawkish tone. Though inflation will pick up this year, a hike is unlikely. We think the next move will be a small cut in... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) South African inflation edged up to 4.5% y/y in April, following a VAT hike at the start of the month. Taking that together with the recent fall in the rand, we think that the MPC will leave interest... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth stalls in Q1, will pick up thereafter Today’s retail figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered at the start of 2018, with GDP actually contracting in Q1. We still think that growth will return Q2 and remain strong... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbled in Q1 Today’s activity data suggest that growth faltered in Q1. Recent surveys, however, point to improving conditions, and we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.0% over 2018 as a whole. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Today’s strong PMI reading – which recovered to 50.9 – may not tell us much; the measure has been highly volatile lately. Other indicators, however, also point to growing confidence in the economy. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
