Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbled in Q1 Today’s activity data suggest that growth faltered in Q1. Recent surveys, however, point to improving conditions, and we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.0% over 2018 as a whole. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Today’s strong PMI reading – which recovered to 50.9 – may not tell us much; the measure has been highly volatile lately. Other indicators, however, also point to growing confidence in the economy. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Public sector wage talks pose fiscal risk Labour relations in South Africa are deteriorating. Public sector wage talks are particularly fraught; a strike could cripple government services, while a big wage hike would sharply widen the budget... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector cooled in February, providing another sign that the economy faltered a bit in Q1. Even so, we retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s March manufacturing PMI was surprisingly weak. We retain the view, however, that growth remained strong in Q1. They survey has, after all, given misleadingly negative readings recently. 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African ratings reprieve provides boost for bonds March was a mixed months for African markets. While most currencies performed well, dollar bonds sold off. Most local markets did, however, gain over Q1 as a whole. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate cut will be a one-off Today’s 25bp interest rate cut does not signal the start of a new easing cycle. We think that policymakers were attempting to seize the opportunity for a quick cut before inflation picks up later this... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A weak start to 2018 South Africa’s seems to have economy slowed in January, but the weakness of recent figures was exaggerated by the comparison with a strong performance at the end of 2017. We think that growth will... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb) & Current Account (Q4 2017) Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Manufacturing output growth in South Africa jumped to 2.5% y/y in January, supporting our view that the economy retained momentum at the beginning of the year. 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Land reform fears are overblown Parliamentary discussions on land reform have prompted much breathless commentary. But, while the proposed changes remain unclear, a mushy compromise is more likely than a Zimbabwe-style land grab. 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late 2017 South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
