Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB abandons hawkish turn South African policymakers’ abrupt shift away from their previous hawkish rhetoric suggests that further rate hikes are now unlikely. We think that attention will soon turn to cuts; we expect a 25bp... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slight slowdown in Q4 November retail sales figures added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy slowed a touch in Q4. But economic growth was robust by recent standards, and we think that conditions will improve in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s slowdown in manufacturing growth supports our view that GDP growth eased in Q4 after a very strong Q3. But activity still remained strong (by local standards) and we think that headline... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More signs of strong start to Q4 Retail sales figures released today add to the evidence that South Africa maintained robust growth at the start of Q4. Inflation remained high in November, suggesting another rate hike in Q1 2019. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data points to strong start to Q4 Activity data for October suggest that South Africa’s economy retained the momentum it picked up in Q3. Even so, we retain the view that growth will probably slow over the coming months. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa land reform: More Taiwan than Zimbabwe The move towards land expropriation without compensation in South Africa has prompted fears of a Zimbabwe-style ‘land grab’. But examples from Asia show that land reform can be a success. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly MTN dispute underlines Nigeria’s difficult business environment An opaque out-of-court settlement between Nigeria’s government and MTN would do little to improve perceptions of the country’s business environment. Elsewhere; South Africa’s economy returned to... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q3, of 3.5% of GDP, adds to the reasons to think that the Reserve Bank will tighten monetary policy a little further in the next few... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy escaped recession in Q3, and the rebound was much stronger than we’d expected. But growth will probably soften in Q4 due to weaker agricultural growth and the imposition of... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in November is the latest sign that the economy is now recovering following a very weak performance earlier this year. Even so, we think that... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hikes rates, Tanzanian nuts, Ethiopian reforms Hawkish rhetoric from South Africa’s MPC suggests that another rate hike is likely in Q1. But the divided MPC’s appetite for further tightening will dissipate if – as we expect – inflation eases in... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Land reform escalates, SARB will hold rates next week South Africa’s government has taken a big step towards the expropriation of land without compensation, but fears that land reform will disrupt the economy are overblown. Meanwhile, given weak economic... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
