Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The plunge in South African inflation to just 3.0% y/y in April is likely to be followed by further declines, allowing the central bank to cut interest rates further. We expect another 75bp of cuts in... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can South Africa’s banks weather the Covid fallout? The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis is likely to push bad loans in South Africa’s banking sector to levels that trigger a round of recapitalisations, which could further increase the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South African lockdown causing activity to collapse Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus and South Africa’s lockdown measures are taking a heavy toll on the economy and supports our view that the economy will decline sharply over the year as a... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lockdown to give way to slow recovery Even after further easing of South African lockdown measures last week, a quarter of the economy remains closed. And the impact of the lockdown on unemployment and insolvencies will cause long-lasting... 10th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how low can rates go? A look at South Africa’s recent history would suggest that the monetary easing cycle has further to run. We now expect an additional 75bp of cuts in the coming months, taking the repo rate from the... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in the business activity component of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI shows that conditions in the sector improved in May, having come almost to a standstill in April. With manufacturing... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update End of South Africa’s easing cycle approaching South African policymakers continued to cut interest rates today, taking the repo rate down by 50bp to 3.75%, but the end of the easing cycle appears to be on the horizon. At this stage, we expect one... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s budget proposal, SA economy reawakening The amendments to the 2020 budget approved by Nigeria’s cabinet this week suggest that the government is not yet fully facing up to the fiscal damage caused by the coronavirus. Elsewhere, flickers of... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s public debt problem only getting worse South Africa’s public debt ratio will rise sharply this year and it would take an implausible degree of austerity or reduction in borrowing costs to stabilise the debt ratio in the following years. A... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The business activity indicator of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI crashed to just 5.1 in April, highlighting the severity of the country’s lockdown. With the lockdown now easing, conditions should... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in South African inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in March will give the central bank more room for manoeuvre. Although yesterday’s announcement of a fiscal package by the... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: data gap can be bridged for now South Africa’s ongoing three-week lockdown means the statistics agency won’t be publishing or collecting data during this time. In this Update, we explain what other data we should look at, what would... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s PMI jumped in March, but only due to a statistical quirk in the compilation process. The underlying data suggest that the economy was, in fact, weakening even before the recent lockdown... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Anticlimactic downgrade tells us little new Given the scale of ongoing global market turbulence, Moody’s decision to strip South Africa of its last investment grade rating will have less immediate effect than some had feared. That said, the... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Lockdown will deepen economic contraction President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to emulate the lockdowns seen in Europe and East Asia will cause GDP to fall by 6-8% in Q2. It will also be the first real test of whether such policies can be... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
