Africa Economics Update SA: little hit from tighter restrictions, SARB to stay dovish The further tightening of virus containment measures in South Africa for at least the next two weeks is unlikely to inflict severe damage on the economy. But it reinforces our view that the Reserve... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s cocoa boom, core inflation still low in S. Africa Optimism is growing about a potential bumper cocoa harvest in Ghana, which could boost exports by more than 1% of GDP and presents an upside risk to our above-consensus growth forecasts. Meanwhile... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate jumped to a multi-year high of 5.2% y/y last month, the weakness of core inflation and the recent tightening of lockdown measures means that the Reserve... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa’s economy weathered a second virus wave relatively well, but with cases rising again and other headwinds hanging over the outlook, the recent strength of the recovery is unlikely to last. 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in May points to an improvement in underlying economic conditions in the sector, but we think that the recovery will be held back by key headwinds... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB laying seeds of policy normalisation Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, while laying the foundations for normalising monetary policy. We think that rate hikes are some time off as the Reserve... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation in April, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by energy price effects but there were signs that broader price pressures are starting to build. But even so, we think... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: industry strength unlikely to last South African hard activity data for March paint a bright picture of the recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The easing of lockdown measures combined with favourable base effects are... 13th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Fly in the ointment of strong SA survey data Recently released survey data from South Africa point to a marked improvement in economic conditions but there were further signs that firms are suffering from supply chain disruptions. What’s more... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate crept up to 3.2% y/y in March but this was almost entirely due to energy price effects that will become more pronounced this quarter. In contrast, underlying... 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery back on (a slow) track South Africa’s hard activity data for February show that the recovery resumed following a January slump on the back of a second virus wave. While the economy will probably finish Q1 on a stronger note... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
