Africa Economics Weekly Kganyago reappointed, rate cut likely next week The re-appointment of South Africa’s respected central bank governor will help to allay fears concerning the independence of the Reserve Bank. We think that policymakers will cut their policy rate... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in June, but it still points to a poor performance in Q2. While the survey sometimes provides misleading readings, its consistent weakness suggests growth... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa has a dream, but few plans South Africa’s president provided essentially no policy detail in yesterday’s ambitious State of the Nation speech. Indeed, he seems to have walked back his plan of a relatively modest restructuring... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of central bank’s target range in May, providing the space for policymakers to support the economy by cutting their key interest rate next month. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to a better start of Q2 Mining figures for April released today were softer than expected, but stronger conditions in the rest of the economy suggest that the second quarter started on a brighter note. This means that South... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: SOE worries widespread, but few pose real risks Many of South Africa’s state-owned firms face financial and management troubles, but most – like South African Airways – pose little risk to the wider economy. Eskom and Transnet are the only two... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Apr.) Manufacturing output jumped to a three-year high of 4.6% y/y in April. This provides the first sign that the economy returned to growth in Q2, thus dodging a technical recession. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2019 set to be even worse than 2018 The surprisingly-sharp 3.2% q/q saar fall in output in Q1 has led us to cut our 2019 full-year growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. Given downbeat survey data for Q2, it is possible that the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back to 45.4 in May, dampening hopes of a recovery after a weak Q1. The fall in the prices sub-component supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP slump & rate cuts, inflation drop vindicates CBK Dovish comments from the South African Reserve Bank this week support our view that an interest rate cut is likely to come as soon as July. Elsewhere, the drop in Kenyan inflation in May backed up the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa decreased to 4.4% y/y in April due to weaker core price pressures. We think that the headline rate will continue on a downward trend over the rest of the year. Combined with... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to grim result in Q1 March retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2.0% in Q1. This strengthens our belief that the next rate move will be a cut. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
