Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s new president off to a good start, SOEs in SA Zambia’s newly elected president has wasted no time to push to restore macroeconomic stability, and reassure investors. But recent concerns about hidden debts could pose a risk to the debt... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM assets & the risk of higher inflation We think that there is a risk of a period of moderately higher inflation in some major emerging markets (EMs) over the coming years. If that came to pass, it would probably be bad news for local... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic not in the rear-view mirror for some time The economic damage from the latest COVID-19 waves across Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be smaller compared to previous waves, but low vaccination rates mean that officials will have to keep... 1st September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI bounced back last month following a sharp drop in activity in July on the back of violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. But persistent headwinds will... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rising political risks in Ethiopia, SA GDP revision’s pros? An internal political conflict in Ethiopia is escalating with an all-out civil war no longer a remote prospect. Strains in the country’s already fragile balance sheet are growing and a messy sovereign... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Economic damage report from latest virus waves The evidence from the latest COVID-19 waves sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa point to a smaller economic blow compared to previous waves. Of course, there is a considerable degree of divergence... 27th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: bigger GDP doesn’t ease economic woes Revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data show that the economy is more than 10% larger than previously estimated. But this doesn’t alter the headwinds facing the economic recovery and, while the... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have reached a turning point Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly BIG a non-starter, rand on the rocks, Hichilema hired The South African authorities appear to be devoting increased attention to the idea of a permanent basic income grant (“BIG”) but, in practice, such proposals are probably dead on arrival. Meanwhile... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in July, to 4.6% y/y, as fears that recent violent unrest would fuel inflation pressures proved to be overdone. Underlying price pressures remain soft and... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at South Africa’s public finances The improvement in South Africa’s budget position at the start of this fiscal year has probably now been partially reversed and we think that policymakers will find it increasingly difficult to remain... 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: new cabinet, old problems; SDRs no bonanza This week’s cabinet re-shuffle in South Africa has hit the rand and, while the new finance minister appears to be an investor-friendly choice, it will be a tall order to stabilise the public debt... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
