Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation plunged to 2.1% y/y in May, which probably takes it near the trough. But even as price pressures start to pick up, the headline rate will remain very subdued, allowing the... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA manufacturing sector one of the worst hit across EMs Hard activity data from South Africa confirm that the economy has been among the hardest hit across major EMs by the coronavirus crisis and, while the lockdown has been eased in recent months, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation in South Africa? Weak core inflation is likely to keep the headline rate in South Africa close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range both this year and next. This should allow the central bank to keep... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade data, oil producers in the line of fire South Africa’s external sector probably shifted from being an economic tailwind to a headwind in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Africa’s oil producers are facing mounting pressure from OPEC to comply... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI reading offered mixed messages once again in June, but the business activity component suggests that activity in the sector continued to recover from April’s... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) The fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 provides an early sign of the massive economic hit from the country’s severe lockdown measures and supports our view that further interest rate cuts lie in store. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s debt woes tie policymakers’ hands South Africa’s emergency budget highlighted that the dire state of the public finances is limiting the scope for fiscal support this year and attention is already focused on dealing with the legacy of... 24th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The plunge in South African inflation to just 3.0% y/y in April is likely to be followed by further declines, allowing the central bank to cut interest rates further. We expect another 75bp of cuts in... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can South Africa’s banks weather the Covid fallout? The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis is likely to push bad loans in South Africa’s banking sector to levels that trigger a round of recapitalisations, which could further increase the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South African lockdown causing activity to collapse Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus and South Africa’s lockdown measures are taking a heavy toll on the economy and supports our view that the economy will decline sharply over the year as a... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lockdown to give way to slow recovery Even after further easing of South African lockdown measures last week, a quarter of the economy remains closed. And the impact of the lockdown on unemployment and insolvencies will cause long-lasting... 10th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how low can rates go? A look at South Africa’s recent history would suggest that the monetary easing cycle has further to run. We now expect an additional 75bp of cuts in the coming months, taking the repo rate from the... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in the business activity component of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI shows that conditions in the sector improved in May, having come almost to a standstill in April. With manufacturing... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update End of South Africa’s easing cycle approaching South African policymakers continued to cut interest rates today, taking the repo rate down by 50bp to 3.75%, but the end of the easing cycle appears to be on the horizon. At this stage, we expect one... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
