Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: data gap can be bridged for now South Africa’s ongoing three-week lockdown means the statistics agency won’t be publishing or collecting data during this time. In this Update, we explain what other data we should look at, what would... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s PMI jumped in March, but only due to a statistical quirk in the compilation process. The underlying data suggest that the economy was, in fact, weakening even before the recent lockdown... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Anticlimactic downgrade tells us little new Given the scale of ongoing global market turbulence, Moody’s decision to strip South Africa of its last investment grade rating will have less immediate effect than some had feared. That said, the... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Lockdown will deepen economic contraction President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to emulate the lockdowns seen in Europe and East Asia will cause GDP to fall by 6-8% in Q2. It will also be the first real test of whether such policies can be... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB makes strong response South African policymakers appear to have decided that the current grave economic situation requires a bold response, and have moved away from their traditional hawkishness. We expect that they will... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Worsening outbreak will prompt SARB to cut Activity data from January suggest that the economy was already contracting before the coronavirus reached South Africa. The outbreak will add to economic headwinds. Policymakers are likely to spring... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Brief respite after Q4, but another contraction likely Early signs suggest that economic conditions improved at the start of Q1, but disruptions caused by the coronavirus make it likely that output will have fallen later in the quarter and going into Q2... 12th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) Weak domestic demand in South Africa has narrowed the country’s current account deficit, which should provide some support to the rand and allow the SARB more space to loosen policy. We expect that... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Coronavirus to trigger more widespread EM rate cuts The continued spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut will result in more aggressive loosening in EMs than we previously envisaged. We expect central banks in much of Emerging Asia... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy in the doldrums The sharp fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q4 not only marked a technical recession, but also set up a very weak starting point for 2020. And downside risks are growing with the spread of the coronavirus... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While weak PMIs elsewhere in the EM world were partially due to spill over effects from the coronavirus, the sharp fall in the South African survey largely reflects domestic weaknesses. We suspect... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation jumped to the 4.5% y/y midpoint of policymakers’ target range in January, which strengthens our view that the current easing cycle will end after just one more cut. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa goes slow and steady President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address contained a few promising announcements, relating to independent power firms. But his continued stress on the need for consensus strengthened... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
