Africa Economics Update South Africa MTBPS: between a rock and a hard place South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni today fleshed out harsh austerity plans for the next few fiscal years. But the emphasis on spending cuts, including a three-year public wage freeze, will... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small drop in South African inflation, to 3.0% y/y in September, won’t be sufficient to prompt policymakers to resume their easing cycle. Equally, it reinforces the idea that price pressures are... 28th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery lagging behind Hard activity data from South Africa released this week point to continued weakness in the economic recovery in August despite the easing of containment measures. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s next steps: lessons from the GFC The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) experience suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to raise the repo rate within our near-term forecast horizon (to end-2022). Investors... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rise in in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September suggests that further easing of the country’s lockdown measures has boosted activity. But there remain many obstacles to a sustained... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The slight fall in South African inflation, to 3.1% y/y in August, is likely to be followed by subdued inflation rates over the next few months. Even so, the SARB’s easing cycle has now come to an end... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The huge fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 confirms our pessimistic outlook for the economy and, with fiscal austerity on the horizon, the recovery will be weak. Policymakers at the central bank will... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The jump in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August confirms that the sector was boosted as the country eased lockdown restrictions further. But with power cuts becoming a problem once again and... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation will probably hover near July’s reading, of 3.2% y/y, in the coming months and, as the economic recovery wavers, we think that more monetary easing lies in store. 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: lockdown easing, but clouds hang over outlook The announcement over the weekend that South Africa is further easing containment measures will probably give a much-needed boost to activity as much of the economy is allowed to reopen. But it looks... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI provided the first strong signal that the sector’s rebound has stalled in recent weeks. With the authorities struggling to bring the virus under control... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation edged up to 2.2% y/y in June and, while it will rise further over the coming months, it is likely to stay close to the lower bound of the central bank’s (SARB’s) target range... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautious, but still scope for further easing Divisions on South Africa’s MPC suggest that some policymakers are keen for the easing cycle to be brought to an end following today’s 25bp cut (to 3.50%). And that seems to be the view priced into... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
