Africa Economics Update SA: Land reform: Market moves exceed economic risk President Ramaphosa’s call for constitutional change has stoked investor fears of economically-painful land reform. We think that this is overdone, but a poorly-managed process will boost market... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July supports our view that the economy will strengthen in the second half of this year. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales suggest improvement in Q2 Today’s unexpectedly strong retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy improved in the middle of Q2. The contraction seems to have bottomed out in April. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) June’s softer-than-expected inflation print supports our view that fears of a rate hike are misplaced. We think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year, before cutting its key interest rate... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction eased in middle of Q2 Surprisingly positive figures from the mining and manufacturing sectors suggest that South Africa’s economy improved a bit last quarter. Even so, GDP probably continued to fall. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (Jun.) The latest drop in the SACCI Business Confidence Index strengthens our view that South Africa’s economy remained weak in Q2. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Ramaphosa slump After contracting in Q1, the latest figures suggest that South Africa’s economy remained very weak in Q2. As a result, we’ve cut our 2018 GDP estimate from 2.0% y/y to a below-consensus 1.3%. 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for June provides further evidence that the slump in the economy seen in Q1 was followed by further weakness in Q2. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) After widening in Q1, South Africa’s current account deficit will likely narrow later this year. The deficit strengthens calls for a rate hike, though we maintain that the SARB will leave rates on... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation eased slightly in May, which should reduce speculation that the SARB will hike rates in the coming months. We think that policymakers will keep rates on hold, before cutting in... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak start to Q2 Today’s mining figures confirmed that, following a disappointing Q1, South Africa’s economy weakened even more at the start of the Q2. We still think that the economy will strengthen this year. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
