US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) For all the talk of a renewed US housing bubble, today’s mortgage applications data are a reminder that the recovery remains highly dependent on loose monetary policy. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April's encouraging 0.7% m/m advance in export volumes, following the previous month's much stronger gain, indicates that exports are holding up and that external trade may continue to buffer GDP... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $40.3bn in April, from $37.1bn in March, was largely due to an unwinding of the distortion caused by the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday. 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) House price gains of 12% per annum are clearly not sustainable. But in the short-term, news that the housing sector shows few signs of slowing will surely be something of a relief, following yesterday... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a near four-year low of 49.0 in May, from 50.7, suggests that weak global conditions are weighing on US producers. While the manufacturing sector is... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's housing downturn mirroring US slump Home building in Canada is on an ominous downward slope, similar in many ways to what happened in the early stages of the slump in the US. For this reason we think it is premature for policymakers to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fears about student loans still look overdone The latest data from the New York Fed have reignited concerns about a possible bubble in student loans. But the growth of student loans has always been faster than the growth in other types of... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2013) The pick-up in GDP growth to 2.5% annualised in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained because it was partly due to a one-off rebound in energy exports. Those exports are now almost completely... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falters on insufficient domestic demand The further decline in the small and medium-sized business confidence in May suggests that second-quarter GDP growth may have slowed down to less than half the estimated 2.2% annualised in the first... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are inventory levels starting to normalise? The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions improving slightly Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a solid 175,000, in May, although we suspect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5%. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wages and salaries less supportive to consumption growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US lending further The FDIC’s latest banking figures show that, buoyed by falling loan default rates, the quarterly net income of US banks hit a record high of $40bn in the first quarter. The expiry of the unlimited... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat and waits for new Governor The Bank of Canada stood pat, leaving its tightening bias unchanged ahead of the arrival of the new Governor. The challenges that Governor Poloz will face, namely a weak global economy, volatile... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
