US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 82.7 in June, from 84.5, reversed only part of the sharp gain of May. While the details of the report point to solid... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (May) The recent weakness of the global economy explains why both industrial activity and core producer price pressures are still subdued. Producers have had little choice but to reflect the previous sharp... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about higher mortgage rates? The rise in mortgage interest rates has the potential to generate a hiatus in housing sales and starts over the summer. At the margins, the rise also adds to the case for expecting the housing... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May 13) May’s retail sales figures revealed some tentative signs that households are getting over January’s tax hikes and may be starting to spend some of the cash freed up by the recent fall in gasoline... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper We don't expect the Fed to begin curbing its asset purchases from the current pace of $85bn per month at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (19th June). The economic data simply... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) In spite of the sharp 1.1% m/m increase, the annual growth rate of Teranet house prices held steady at 2.0% in May. For now, both the past decline in existing home sales and the steady rise in the... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Inventory levels inch higher The latest readings from the CoreLogic and Case-Shiller house price indices show that prices have posted double-digit gains over the past year. But not all the past month’s housing news was so buoyant... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households looking increasingly healthy The Fed’s latest US Financial Accounts (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts) highlight that in a few years’ time, US households will be well placed to contribute to a prolonged period of... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Field of dreams: Is farmland the next bubble? There does appear to be a localised bubble in farmland values in the corn belt. Near-zero interest rates have undoubtedly played some role in this, but the bigger factor has been the surge in corn and... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada's housing downturn far from over Recent housing evidence does not convince us that Canada's housing downturn has stabilised. As housing demand remains sluggish in certain markets and softens further in others, we expect the still... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Time running out for policymakers' hopes of rebalancing It is becoming more clear that sluggish global demand and volatile commodity prices will outlast the willingness and ability of households' to provide debt-fuelled support to economic growth. Without... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Significant surge in Treasury yields is still unlikely We do not place much weight on concerns that the recent rise in Treasury yields will snuff out the economic recovery or that it is the start of a sharp and sustained rise in yields similar to that... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The spectacular 95,000 increase in employment in May is almost the strongest on record and obviously makes up for the unusually soft figures over the previous several months. But the recent volatile... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) By revealing a decent rise in payroll employment but a small rise in the unemployment rate, May’s Employment Report had something for everyone. Our reading is that it leaves the Fed on track to taper... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market recovery marching on The stronger-than-expected start to the year means that the risks to our house price forecasts have shifted to the upside. However, we think it is more likely than not that the pace of house price... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack GDP growth to be pulled down by domestic weakness The pick-up in first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, propelled by an energy-driven rebound in net exports, masks the undertow from the slowing domestic economy. Government spending restraint... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
