Canada Economics Update Declining profits likely to hinder business investment Against the fragile global backdrop and the volatility of Canadian energy prices, business operating profits, which nudged lower in the first quarter of this year, are likely to remain under... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, falling gasoline prices and the housing recovery, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to a five-year high of 76.2 in May, from 69.0... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q1) In the first quarter, the annual rate of house price growth moved back into double-digit territory on each of the three main Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. These were the first double-digit readings... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deflation alert Underlying inflation has fallen below the Bank of Canada's inflation 1% to 3% target range and could decline even further if the real economy underperforms this year. Accordingly, without additional... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed struggling to explain likely evolution of asset purchases For a central bank that supposedly puts so much weight on clear communications, last week’s various attempts by Federal Reserve officials to explain when it might begin curbing its open ended monthly... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.3% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in April is another sign that growth is holding up quite well. We anticipate a 5% annualised gain in business investment in the second quarter, with... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will soon become unnecessary The outgoing Governor Carney's last scheduled statement next week (May 29th) is unlikely to hint at any shift in policy. Nor do we believe that his replacement Stephen Poloz, due to take over next... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr. 13) Another rise in new home sales in March means that February’s unexpected dip has now been almost fully reversed. And with sales up by 29% over the past year, nearly double the 15% growth seen in the... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the healthy 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March, earlier reports showing far more tepid increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade suggest that the economy ended the first... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr. 13) The underlying recovery in existing home sales continued in April. But the real news in today’s NAR release was the drop in distressed sales and the gain in the inventory of homes for sale. 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility The fall in inflation to well below the Fed's 2% target rate is another reason why the central bank will be in no hurry to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases. Headline CPI inflation fell to... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending less supportive to growth After shoring up economic growth over the second half of last year, economic indicators suggest that household consumption will be less supportive to growth over the first half of this year and... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US making progress on deficit reduction Over the next two years, America is expected to reduce its government budget deficit by more than the largest European economies. This won’t come without a cost. But the big difference is that America... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) The official core inflation figure, which declined to a slightly lower than expected 1.1% in April from 1.4% in the previous month, might slip below its target range as economic growth disappoints... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) A dip in housing starts in April had been widely expected. Although the drop was much larger than the consensus forecast, other forward-looking indicators strongly suggest that April’s slump will be... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further falls in core inflation may make some Fed officials concerned about the possibility of very low inflation, or even deflation. This could mean we are jumping the gun a bit by expecting the Fed... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
